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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BOS
DET

DET

12-11

6
8
BOS

BOS

9-13

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
34,880 attended

Line movement

15 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BOS no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.1%51.1%BOS NO-VIG %MODEL 52.8%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

DET 6 · BOS 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0011010036
BOS020001328

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    236
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    258
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 97
    139
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    2410
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    1410
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 96
    77
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Apr 20·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasBOS -136

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Detroit Tigers, 8–6.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Jahmai Jones

Jahmai Jones

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Carlos Narvaez

Carlos Narvaez

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET12-11
6
8
BOS9-13
DET12-11·BOS9-13
DET

DET

12-11

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
2-55120001
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-44111010
SPRINT25.18
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-44000000
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-33122020
SPRINT2744
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44100010
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-11000001
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-44110002
H. LeeH. Lee★2B
2-44121001
SPRINT27.457
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
1-44011001
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson1B
0-11000001
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
1-11011000
SPRINT28.278
W. PerezW. PerezRF
0-11000000
Team10-36366106047
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
3.1320630
B. HurterB. HurterRP
2.2211020
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
0.2433210
D. AndersonD. AndersonRP
1.1322010
Team8.01286870
BOS

BOS

9-13

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-22011031
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-55010001
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44001011
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-44220010
SPRINT26.123
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44210012
SPRINT27.969
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-33000001
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
2-44120010
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
1-33110000
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
2-33121010
SPRINT257
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa2B
1-22012001
SPRINT27.560
C. RafaelaC. RafaelaCF
1-22112000
SPRINT28.790
Team12-36368127087
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
2.2311120
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
0.2011100
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.2100010
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0000030
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0000000
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
1.1433000
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
0.2100010
Team9.01066470

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    73 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      40%·91.0 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      25%·76.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      23%·83.2 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      10%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hurter
    41 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      63%·91.6 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      22%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      2%·91.5 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Holton
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      50%·88.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      23%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·91.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Anderson
    21 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·78.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.5 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • S. Gray
    40 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      33%·88.9 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      23%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·79.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      15%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • R. Watson
    29 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      41%·90.7 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      34%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      3%·83.5 mph·— whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • FC
      63%·90.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      40%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      40%·89.3 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      13%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·80.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Moran
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • CH
      50%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      38%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      23%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      58%·86.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·83.9 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    10 pitches·60% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      40%·94.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

12

6

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 17DETDET0@BOSBOS1
Apr 18DETDET4@BOSBOS1
Apr 19DETDET6@BOSBOS2
Apr 20DETDET6@BOSBOS8today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 17DETDET0@BOSBOS1
Apr 18DETDET4@BOSBOS1
Apr 19DETDET6@BOSBOS2
Apr 20DETDET6@BOSBOS8today
May 4BOSBOS5@DETDET4
May 5BOSBOS10@DETDET3
May 6BOSBOS4@DETDET0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+11347%
BOSBOS-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 6th Inning

DETDET
J. Jones

J. Jones

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 6 BB

BOSBOS
C. Narvaez

C. Narvaez

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat DET 8-6. Jones's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

BOS vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 6th Inning · 3-2
+18pp→ 76% WP

Jones · singled to center, Greene scored, Dingler to third.

BOSBottom 6th Inning · 3-3
+17pp→ 62% WP

Anthony · singled to center, Narváez scored.

BOSBottom 7th Inning · 3-5
+15pp→ 89% WP

Rafaela · singled to right, Story scored and Yoshida scored, Rafaela to second, Durbin out at home on runner's fielder's choice.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0011010036
BOS02000132—8

Period scoring

DET won 2 · BOS won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Narv 1

1
0

Inn 3

Rogers 1

1
0

Inn 4

Lee 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Jones 1

Anthony 1

0
3

Inn 7

Rafaela 2

0
2

Inn 8

Kiner-Falefa 2

3

Inn 9

Greene 2

DET
BOS

Play-by-play · 636 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    DET 6·BOS 8

  2. T9

    Dingler grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    DET 6·BOS 8

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 6·BOS 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 6·BOS 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 6·BOS 8

  6. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    DET 6·BOS 8

  7. T9

    ·

    DET 6·BOS 8

  8. T9

    Greene doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Torres scored.

    · ·

    DET 6·BOS 8

    −3pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 6·BOS 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  11. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Riley Greene

    · ·

    DET 6·BOS 8

  12. T9

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  13. T9

    Torkelson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

    +3pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  22. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  23. T9

    Chapman relieved Watson

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  24. T9

    Torkelson hit for Keith

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  25. T9

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  26. T9

    Torres singled to right, Lee scored, McGonigle to third.

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

    −3pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 8

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 8

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

6

Runs

8

10

Hits

12

1

Errors

0

14

TB

15

0

HR

0

4

BB

8

7

K

7

23

LOB

25

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8.5·DET +113/BOS -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BOS vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.7± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.9%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    54.0%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.1%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175