Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at ARI?

The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 19, 2026

FINAL+6TOR

TOR

8-13

104

ARI

13-9

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

32,240 attended

Line movement

21 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

ARI no-vig %

48.5%

open 48.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.4%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.2%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.6%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-103

Close price

-103

Open no-vig

48.5%

Close no-vig

48.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at ARI?: The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

ARI vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.8low
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.3± 2.4medium
Trey YesavageTOR
5.3± 2.1low

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.3± 0.7high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.8high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.1high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.1± 2.2high
George SpringerTOR
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.2high
Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ketel MarteARI
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.3medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.5± 3.0low
Kevin GausmanTOR
2.8± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

ARI

.704

OPS

◀

.719

.696

.312

OBP

.319

.310

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.33

4.10

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.29

1.31

WHIP

1.31

1.30

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 10 · ARI 4 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	8	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	10
ARI	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LukesRF	.214	5	1	3	3	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.302	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.333	5	2	3	2	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.262	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
E. JimenezDH	.313	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
A. GimenezSS	.273	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.221	4	2	2	3	1	1	2
M. StrawRF	.346	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.185	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
Team		38	10	14	10	1	4	7

Player

.214

.302

.333

.262

.313

.273

.221

.346

.185

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GausmanSP	6.0	7	2	2	1	4	86
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	18
T. NanceRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
B. FisherRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	10	4	4	1	5	123

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

123

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.217	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FernandezDH	.300	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.125	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.303	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
I. Vargas1B	.368	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McCannC	.250	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. ThomasCF	.164	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.240	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
A. GarciaC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TawaLF	.139	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	10	4	1	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. NelsonSP	0.1	8	8	8	1	1	30
A. HoffmannRP	2.1	2	1	1	1	3	33
B. PfaadtRP	6.1	4	1	1	2	3	84
Team	9.0	14	10	10	4	7	147

Team

TOR

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ARI vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

ARI vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.