Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at PIT?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 30, 2026

FINAL+5STL

STL

18-13

105

PIT

16-16

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

12,143 attended

Line movement

52 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

PIT no-vig %

66.9%

open 66.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.3%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.7%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+189

Close price

+189

Open no-vig

33.1%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at PIT?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

PIT vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.3± 2.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.5± 2.4medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.4± 1.0high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.3± 1.4high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.6± 3.1high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 1.7high
JJ WetherholtSTL
2.1± 3.0high

RBIs

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.9± 1.2high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.5low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.4± 2.7medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.6± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

PIT

.728

OPS

.718

▶

.744

.328

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.63

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.01

4.26

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.17

1.34

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.31

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 10 · PIT 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	5	0	10
PIT	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	1	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.256	4	2	2	1	1	1	0
I. HerreraDH	.239	4	2	0	0	0	1	2
A. Burleson1B	.277	5	1	3	3	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.284	5	1	2	3	1	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.223	5	1	2	1	0	0	2
M. WinnSS	.253	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. ChurchLF	.235	5	1	1	2	0	0	1
P. PagesC	.262	5	0	2	0	0	0	2
V. Scott IICF	.179	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		40	10	13	10	2	3	12

Player

.256

.239

.277

.284

.223

.253

.235

.262

.179

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. DobbinsSP	4.1	2	3	3	5	4	79
J. BruihlRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	18
G. GraceffoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	24
J. RomeroRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	2	21
R. StanekRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
M. SvansonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	17
Team	9.0	7	5	5	6	8	174

Player

4.1

0.2

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

174

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.256	4	2	1	0	0	1	2
B. Lowe2B	.252	5	1	2	1	1	0	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.246	4	1	2	2	0	1	1
R. O'HearnRF	.306	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Gonzales3B	.317	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Horwitz1B	.250	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
K. GriffinSS	.231	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. MangumLF	.271	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
H. DavisC	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Yorke3B	.221	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	7	4	1	6	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SkenesSP	5.0	7	5	3	0	9	102
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
I. MattsonRP	0.2	3	5	5	2	0	31
C. DevenskiRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	19
Team	9.0	13	10	8	3	12	180

Team

STL

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

PIT vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.