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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TEX
TEX

TEX

10-9

9
6
ATH

ATH

10-9

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,764 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

ATH no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

+2.0+1.0ATH SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL53.6%45.6%ATH NO-VIG %MODEL 53.0%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 9 · ATH 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0010112049
ATH0000300306

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    258
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    236
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 97
    66
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    1410
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    1610
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 95
    2410
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, Apr 16·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasTEX -112

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Athletics and beat them, 9–6.

TEX -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Shea Langeliers

Shea Langeliers

C

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX10-9
9
6
ATH10-9
TEX10-9·ATH10-9
TEX

TEX

10-9

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44011010
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-55110011
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44111000
SPRINT2744
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
3-55232100
SPRINT25.920
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-44100012
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-11000011
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
0-22000001
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-44011012
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
2-44222010
SPRINT28.891
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
1-11211020
SPRINT25.716
E. CarterE. CarterCF
0-22000000
Team10-36369108187
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
5.2733330
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.1000000
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
0.1200000
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.1233100
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
0.1100000
C. QuantrillC. QuantrillRP
1.0100000
Team9.01366430
ATH

ATH

10-9

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44010001
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
2-22220030
SPRINT28.586
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
2-44023010
SPRINT26.632
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-55110001
SPRINT26.735
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
2-55122000
SPRINT27.148
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
2-44021000
SPRINT25.716
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
2-55020000
A. WynnsA. Wynns★C
0-44100001
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-44010000
D. ClarkeD. ClarkeCF
0-11000000
Team13-38386136043
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LopezJ. Lopez★SP
5.0322450
L. MedinaL. MedinaRP
1.1222110
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
0.2111201
J. PerkinsJ. PerkinsRP
1.0000000
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0443110
Team9.01098871

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. Leiter
    105 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.2 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      10%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Junis
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      46%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Quantrill
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      33%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      8%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Alexander
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      36%·88.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      27%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·91.2 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      70%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Latz
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      86%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.9 mph·— whiff

ATH

  • J. Lopez
    85 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      41%·89.9 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      25%·76.2 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      18%·86.3 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Medina
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      34%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      28%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      42%·79.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·90.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·76.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Sterner
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      40%·92.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      30%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Perkins
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·84.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

13

9

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 14TEXTEX8@ATHATH1
Apr 15TEXTEX1@ATHATH2
Apr 16TEXTEX5@ATHATH6
Apr 16TEXTEX9@ATHATH6today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 14TEXTEX8@ATHATH1
Apr 15TEXTEX1@ATHATH2
Apr 16TEXTEX5@ATHATH6
Apr 16TEXTEX9@ATHATH6today
Apr 25ATHATH8@TEXTEX1
Apr 25ATHATH3@TEXTEX4
Apr 26ATHATH2@TEXTEX1
Aug 15TEXTEX@ATHATHupcoming
Aug 16TEXTEX@ATHATHupcoming
Aug 16TEXTEX@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 1ATHATH@TEXTEXupcoming
Sep 2ATHATH@TEXTEXupcoming
Sep 2ATHATH@TEXTEXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX-11253%
ATHATH-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 61pp · Bottom 8th Inning

TEXTEX
J. Pederson

J. Pederson

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

ATHATH
S. Langeliers

S. Langeliers

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Lopez

J. Lopez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

TEX beat ATH 9-6. Kurtz's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (61pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 7th Inning · 5-3
+31pp→ 79% WP

Jung · homered to right (364 feet), Langford scored.

ATHBottom 8th Inning · 5-6
+61pp→ 84% WP

Kurtz · doubled to left, Langeliers scored, Wynns scored and Gelof scored.

TEXTop 9th Inning · 6-6
+36pp→ 79% WP

Higashioka · grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Burger scored on throwing error by pitcher Sterner, Jung safe at third on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0010112049
ATH0000300306

Period scoring

TEX won 4 · ATH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Nimmo 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
3

Inn 5

Burger 1

Wilson 2

1
0

Inn 6

Smith 1

2
0

Inn 7

Jung 2

0
3

Inn 8

Kurtz 3

4
0

Inn 9

Duran 2

TEX
ATH

Play-by-play · 681 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  2. B9

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  3. B9

    Butler fouled out to third.

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  10. B9

    Cal Quantrill pitches to Lawrence Butler

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  11. B9

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  12. B9

    Clarke grounded into double play, third to second to first, Wilson out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

    −7pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  17. B9

    Cal Quantrill pitches to Denzel Clarke

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  18. B9

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  19. B9

    Wilson singled to left.

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

    +4pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  22. B9

    Cal Quantrill pitches to Jacob Wilson

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  23. B9

    Quantrill relieved Latz

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  26. T9

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  27. T9

    Langford struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

    +0.7pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

9

Runs

6

10

Hits

13

0

Errors

1

16

TB

16

1

HR

0

8

BB

4

7

K

3

19

LOB

21

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 8·TEX -112/ATH -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Denzel ClarkeATH · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

ATH vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    54.2%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.0%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.1%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.