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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SD
SD

SD

4-5

8
6
BOS

BOS

2-7

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
29,240 attended

Line movement

25 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

BOS no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL62.3%54.3%BOS NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 8 · BOS 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0003300118
BOS0040002006

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 98
    236
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 97
    1410
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 97
    139
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 97
    66
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    1610
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 95
    2810
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -156

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 8–6.

SD +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Xander Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts

SS

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD4-5
8
6
BOS2-7
SD4-5·BOS2-7
SD

SD

4-5

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-55000001
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-33111011
SPRINT28.483
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
3-55332100
SPRINT28.688
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
2-44223101
SPRINT24.32
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
0-33000012
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
3-33030010
SPRINT27.148
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-33012000
SPRINT27.148
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-44000000
L. CampusanoL. Campusano★C
1-33110002
T. FranceT. France1B
0-11000000
G. SheetsG. Sheets1B
1-11110000
Team12-35358128237
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
2.2344340
K. HartK. HartRP
2.1100100
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.2311020
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
0.1211000
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0000010
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000030
Team9.09664100
BOS

BOS

2-7

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-44100011
SPRINT27.457
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-55010002
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-55112003
SPRINT29.294
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-44100012
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
3-44231000
SPRINT2872
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
3-44033000
SPRINT26.123
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33000010
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-44000002
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-33110010
SPRINT257
Team9-36366960410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
4.0644220
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0222031
T. UberstineT. UberstineRP
2.2311121
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
0.1000000
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.0111000
Team9.01288372

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • W. Buehler
    61 pitches·38% CSW
    • KC
      28%·77.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.5 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Hart
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      43%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·85.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.4 mph·— whiff
  • B. Rodriguez
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      52%·97.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      40%·89.4 mph·57% whiff
    • FC
      4%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      4%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      85%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      15%·80.2 mph·— whiff
  • M. Miller
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • SL
      58%·88.3 mph·80% whiff
    • FF
      42%·101.0 mph·67% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      40%·90.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      30%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·90.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.8 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • R. Suarez
    75 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      32%·81.3 mph·23% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·89.8 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      15%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·75.1 mph·40% whiff
  • T. Uberstine
    45 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      24%·80.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·92.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.9 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      20%·87.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      44%·94.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·94.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·80.7 mph·— whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      41%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·82.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      12%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      50%·84.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      50%·80.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

9

8

Runs

6

0

Errors

2

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 3SDSD2@BOSBOS5
Apr 4SDSD3@BOSBOS2
Apr 5SDSD8@BOSBOS6today

Season series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 3SDSD2@BOSBOS5
Apr 4SDSD3@BOSBOS2
Apr 5SDSD8@BOSBOS6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD+12944%
BOSBOS-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 37pp · Top 5th Inning

SDSD
X. Bogaerts

X. Bogaerts

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

BOSBOS
W. Abreu

W. Abreu

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat BOS 8-6. Machado's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 4th Inning · 3-4
+13pp→ 29% WP

Castellanos · singled to left, Machado scored and Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.

SDTop 5th Inning · 6-4
+37pp→ 67% WP

Machado · homered to left (365 feet), Campusano scored and Merrill scored.

BOSBottom 7th Inning · 6-6
+33pp→ 56% WP

Yoshida · doubled to second, Abreu scored and Contreras scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0003300118
BOS0040002006

Period scoring

SD won 4 · BOS won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
4

Inn 3

Duran 2

3
0

Inn 4

Castellanos 2

3
0

Inn 5

Machado 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Yoshida 2

1
0

Inn 8

Merrill 1

1
0

Inn 9

Jr. 1

SD
BOS

Play-by-play · 599 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 8·BOS 6

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  3. B9

    Contreras struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  9. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Willson Contreras

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  10. B9

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  11. B9

    Duran struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

    −4pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  16. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Jarren Duran

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  17. B9

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  18. B9

    Story struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

    −4pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  22. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Trevor Story

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  23. B9

    Miller relieved Estrada

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  24. B9

    Fermin catching.

    SD 8·BOS 6

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 8·BOS 6

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SD 8·BOS 6

  27. T9

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  28. T9

    Merrill lined out to left.

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 8·BOS 6

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

8

Runs

6

12

Hits

9

0

Errors

2

21

TB

15

2

HR

0

3

BB

4

7

K

10

14

LOB

15

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 9.5·SD +129/BOS -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BOS vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.7± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    54.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.1%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.