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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SEA
HOU

HOU

6-11

2
6
SEA

SEA

8-9

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
18,648 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL65.6%57.6%SEA NO-VIG %MODEL 59.4%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

HOU 2 · SEA 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000200002
SEA302010006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+149

Close price

+149

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Apr 13·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-0/VegasSEA -181

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Houston Astros, 6–2.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Joey Loperfido

Joey Loperfido

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU6-11
2
6
SEA8-9
HOU6-11·SEA8-9
HOU

HOU

6-11

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000000
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-33000010
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT25.18
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000012
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT27.251
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-44110000
SPRINT29.395
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT2744
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-33011000
SPRINT25.513
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-22000000
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
1-11010000
Team7-3232271026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BurrowsM. Burrows★SP
6.01166132
J.P. FranceJ.P. FranceSP
2.0200000
Team8.01366132
SEA

SEA

8-9

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
2-44020010
SPRINT25.18
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
2-55220000
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44220000
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-44225200
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000000
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
3-44031001
SPRINT28.175
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44010000
M. GarverM. Garver★C
1-44010001
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-44000001
Team13-37376136213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
7.2722160
M. BrashM. BrashRP
0.1000000
C. WilcoxC. WilcoxRP
1.0000100
Team9.0722260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • M. Burrows
    98 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      35%·86.9 mph·39% whiff
    • SL
      21%·89.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.2 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.8 mph·40% whiff
  • J.P. France
    23 pitches·13% CSW
    • CH
      30%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      30%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·74.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·79.1 mph·— whiff

SEA

  • G. Kirby
    99 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      34%·86.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      29%·97.0 mph·28% whiff
    • SI
      18%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      10%·83.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      5%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·89.0 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Wilcox
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      56%·88.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.5 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Brash
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      75%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

13

2

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 4-0

Apr 11HOUHOU6@SEASEA9
Apr 12HOUHOU7@SEASEA8
Apr 12HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Apr 13HOUHOU2@SEASEA6today

Season series

SEA leads series 4-0

Apr 11HOUHOU6@SEASEA9
Apr 12HOUHOU7@SEASEA8
Apr 12HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Apr 13HOUHOU2@SEASEA6today
May 12SEASEA3@HOUHOU1
May 13SEASEA10@HOUHOU2
May 14SEASEA3@HOUHOU4
May 14SEASEA8@HOUHOU3
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 16SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Sep 23HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 24HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+14940%
SEASEA-18164%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 1st Inning

HOUHOU
J. Loperfido

J. Loperfido

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Burrows

M. Burrows

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 11 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

7.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat HOU 6-2.

Win probability

SEA vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 84% WP

Naylor · homered to right center (365 feet), Raleigh scored and Rodríguez scored.

SEABottom 3rd Inning · 0-5
+7pp→ 94% WP

Naylor · homered to center (433 feet), Raleigh scored.

HOUTop 5th Inning · 1-5
+6pp→ 16% WP

Diaz · singled to center, Smith scored, Trammell to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000200002
SEA30201000—6

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · SEA won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Naylor 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Naylor 2

0
0

Inn 4

2
1

Inn 5

Diaz 1

Raley 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
SEA

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  2. T9

    Trammell grounded out to first.

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  4. T9

    Walker to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  5. T9

    Walker to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  7. T9

    Cole Wilcox pitches to Taylor Trammell

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  8. T9

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  9. T9

    Smith flied out to right.

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

    +0.8pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  15. T9

    Cole Wilcox pitches to Cam Smith

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  16. T9

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  17. T9

    Correa flied out to right.

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

    +2pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  21. T9

    Cole Wilcox pitches to Carlos Correa

    · ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  22. T9

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  23. T9

    Walker walked.

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

    −2pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

  30. T9

    Cole Wilcox pitches to Christian Walker

    ·

    HOU 2·SEA 6

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

2

Runs

6

7

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

7

TB

21

0

HR

2

2

BB

1

6

K

3

11

LOB

13

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7.5·HOU +149/SEA -181

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SEA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    58.9%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.1%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    181
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 95
    12
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 95
    16
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    12
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 95
    72
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 94
    236
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs