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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CLE
BAL

BAL

9-10

2
4
CLE

CLE

11-9

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
14,748 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%CLE NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

BAL 2 · CLE 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000000022
CLE200011004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 99
    12
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    181
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 96
    72
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    64
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 95
    182
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 95
    221
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Apr 16·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 3-1/VegasCLE -136

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Baltimore Orioles, 4–2.

CLE -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Leody Taveras

Leody Taveras

CF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL9-10
2
4
CLE11-9
BAL9-10·CLE11-9
BAL

BAL

9-10

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-33001001
SPRINT28.175
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44011001
SPRINT25.29
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★RF
0-33000002
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000000
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-33000002
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000001
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-22110011
SPRINT2993
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-33110001
SPRINT28.175
C. CowserC. CowserCF
0-11000000
Team4-2929242029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
6.0644361
C. FosterC. FosterRP
1.2200130
T. WellsT. WellsRP
0.1000010
Team8.08444101
CLE

CLE

11-9

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-44021001
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-33100010
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
2-33222110
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-33010012
G. ValeraG. Valera★LF
2-44021001
SPRINT25.513
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-44000002
J. BritoJ. Brito★2B
0-33000012
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-44000002
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33110000
SPRINT27.354
Team8-31314841410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. MessickP. Messick★SP
8.0222290
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0200000
Team9.0422290

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • S. Baz
    99 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.7 mph·18% whiff
    • KC
      28%·85.4 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.2 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FA
      1%·79.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Foster
    42 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.3 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      38%·85.0 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.8 mph·40% whiff
  • T. Wells
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      50%·88.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.6 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • P. Messick
    112 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      30%·93.8 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      26%·85.4 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      18%·91.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      11%·80.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      2%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      63%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      26%·86.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      11%·85.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

8

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 3-1

Apr 16BALBAL2@CLECLE4today
Apr 17BALBAL6@CLECLE4
Apr 18BALBAL2@CLECLE4
Apr 19BALBAL4@CLECLE8

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

Apr 16BALBAL2@CLECLE4today
Apr 17BALBAL6@CLECLE4
Apr 18BALBAL2@CLECLE4
Apr 19BALBAL4@CLECLE8
Sep 7CLECLE@BALBALupcoming
Sep 8CLECLE@BALBALupcoming
Sep 9CLECLE@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+11347%
CLECLE-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning

BALBAL
L. Taveras

L. Taveras

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

CLECLE
J. Ramirez

J. Ramirez

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcher

8.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat BAL 4-2.

Win probability

CLE vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 82% WP

Ram · írez homered to right center (388 feet), DeLauter scored.

BALTop 9th Inning · 2-4
+14pp→ 24% WP

Alonso · doubled to right, Alexander scored, Ward to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000000022
CLE20001100—4

Period scoring

BAL won 0 · CLE won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Ram 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Kwan 1

0
1

Inn 6

Valera 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Henderson 1

BAL
CLE

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  2. T9

    Basallo grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

    +11pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  4. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Samuel Basallo

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  5. T9

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  6. T9

    Cowser flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

    +13pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  13. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Colton Cowser

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  14. T9

    Cowser hit for Rodríguez

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  15. T9

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  16. T9

    Alonso doubled to right, Alexander scored, Ward to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

    −14pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  18. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Pete Alonso

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  19. T9

    · ·

    BAL 1·CLE 4

  20. T9

    Henderson hit sacrifice fly to right, Taveras scored, Alexander to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 1·CLE 4

    +6pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 1·CLE 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 0·CLE 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 0·CLE 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 0·CLE 4

  25. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    · ·

    BAL 1·CLE 4

  26. T9

    · ·

    BAL 0·CLE 4

  27. T9

    Ward singled to center, Alexander to second, Taveras to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 0·CLE 4

    −8pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 0·CLE 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 0·CLE 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 0·CLE 4

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

2

Runs

4

4

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

5

TB

12

0

HR

1

2

BB

4

9

K

10

9

LOB

14

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 8·BAL +113/CLE -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CLE vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    58.7%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.4%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.3%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.