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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7CHW
CHW

CHW

7-13

9
2
ATH

ATH

10-10

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
12,027 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

ATH spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATH no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0ATH SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL63.3%55.3%ATH NO-VIG %May 2, 9 AMMay 28, 3 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 9 · ATH 2 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW1020204009
ATH0001000102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-163

Close price

-163

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 19, 26sim 98
    47
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    46
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    46
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    40
    28(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    49
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 93
    1810
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1/VegasATH -163

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Athletics and beat them, 9–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHW +1.5 cashed (ATH lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami

1B

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW7-13
9
2
ATH10-10
CHW7-13·ATH10-10
CHW

CHW

7-13

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
3-66231001
SPRINT26.632
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
3-55234102
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-55110001
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-44022012
SPRINT26.326
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-55000001
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
0-33000010
E. QueroE. Quero★C
2-55021002
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-44220010
SPRINT2744
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
2-44221012
SPRINT29.597
Team15-414191591411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
7.0311240
D. NikhazyD. NikhazySP
2.0111210
Team9.0422450
ATH

ATH

10-10

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT25.920
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44110000
SPRINT28.586
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-22011020
SPRINT26.632
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-44000001
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-44000000
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
0-22000010
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-22100011
SPRINT27.969
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-33000001
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
1-33010002
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11001000
Z. GelofZ. Gelof3B
0-11000000
Team4-2929242045
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
4.21155140
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
2.0344331
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
2.1100040
Team9.015994111

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

4

9

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Apr 18CHWCHW9@ATHATH2today
Apr 18CHWCHW6@ATHATH7
Apr 19CHWCHW7@ATHATH4

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

Apr 18CHWCHW9@ATHATH2today
Apr 18CHWCHW6@ATHATH7
Apr 19CHWCHW7@ATHATH4
Jul 10ATHATH@CHWCHWupcoming
Jul 11ATHATH@CHWCHWupcoming
Jul 12ATHATH@CHWCHWupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATH -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+13543%
ATHATH-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 5th Inning

CHWCHW
M. Murakami

M. Murakami

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 11 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHW beat ATH 9-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 72% WP

Montgomery · singled to center, Murakami scored, Vargas to third.

ATHBottom 4th Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 41% WP

Kurtz · singled to right, Langeliers scored.

CHWTop 5th Inning · 4-1
+13pp→ 78% WP

Acu · ña doubled to right, Meidroth scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW1020204009
ATH0001000102

Period scoring

CHW won 4 · ATH won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Montgomery 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Montgomery 1

0
1

Inn 4

Kurtz 1

2
0

Inn 5

Acu 1

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Murakami 4

0
1

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
ATH

Play-by-play · 613 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  3. B9

    Gelof grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  9. B9

    Doug Nikhazy pitches to Zack Gelof

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  10. B9

    Gelof hit for Cortes

    ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  11. B9

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  12. B9

    Wilson grounded out to pitcher, Kurtz to third.

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  14. B9

    Kurtz to second on wild pitch by Nikhazy.

    ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  15. B9

    Kurtz to second on wild pitch by Nikhazy.

    ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  20. B9

    Doug Nikhazy pitches to Jacob Wilson

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  21. B9

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  22. B9

    Soderstrom struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  28. B9

    Doug Nikhazy pitches to Tyler Soderstrom

    · ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  29. B9

    ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

  30. B9

    Kurtz walked.

    ·

    CHW 9·ATH 2

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

9

Runs

2

15

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

22

TB

6

1

HR

0

4

BB

4

11

K

5

23

LOB

12

Betting line

ATH -1.5·O/U 9·CHW +135/ATH -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ATH vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.1%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    63.9%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.3%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.1%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Sam AntonacciCHW · LF
    SPRINT28.175