
CHW
6-10

KC
7-9
Line movement
8 snapshots
KC spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
KC no-vig %
62.1%
open 62.1%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CHW wins
CHW 6 · KC 5 (by 1)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked KC +12pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
Recap · MLB
hicago White Sox went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.
CHW +1.5 cashed (KC lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 2.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHW · top performer

Tanner Murray
LF
2-1
AB-H
1
R
2
RBI
KC · top performer

Bobby Witt Jr.
SS
2-1
AB-H
0
R
2
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


CHW
6-10
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.326 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| Team | 7-32 | 32 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
KC
7-9
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.765 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
SPRINT30.399+ | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.867 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 6-32 | 32 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantCHW
KC
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
7
Hits
6
6
Runs
5
1
Errors
0
Current series
Series tied 2-2
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
KC -1.5
Total
9.0
High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
9.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 4th Inning
T. Murray
LFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS
G. Taylor
RPStarting pitcher
2.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER
B. Witt Jr.
SSBatter of the game
1-for-2 · 1.300 OPS
N. Cameron
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 2 BB
How it ended
CHW beat KC 6-5. Montgomery's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
KC vs CHW
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMurray · homered to left (368 feet), Montgomery scored.
Montgomery · homered to right (384 feet), Sosa scored.
Benintendi · walked, Murakami scored, Quero to second, Sosa to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Period scoring
CHW won 3 · KC won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Murray 2
Inn 3
Jr. 1
Inn 4
Montgomery 2
Collins 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Benintendi 1
Inn 7
Sosa 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 589 plays
End of the 9th inning
CHW 6·KC 5
· ·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pasquantino struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
CHW 6·KC 5
−13pp
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
CHW 6·KC 5
Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino
· ·
CHW 6·KC 5
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Witt Jr. walked.BIG MOMENT
·
CHW 6·KC 5
+8pp
Pitch 5 : Ball 4
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.
·
CHW 6·KC 5
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Garcia flied out to center.BIG MOMENT
·
CHW 6·KC 5
−8pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Maikel Garcia
·
CHW 6·KC 5
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Isbel struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
·
CHW 6·KC 5
−8pp
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Kyle Isbel
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Domínguez relieved Sims
·
CHW 6·KC 5
Bottom of the 9th inning
CHW 6·KC 5
Team stats
CHW
Away
Stat
KC
Home
6
Runs
5
7
Hits
6
1
Errors
0
15
TB
7
2
HR
0
5
BB
6
9
K
9
16
LOB
14
Betting line
KC -1.5·O/U 9·CHW +152/KC -185
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 85 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.5%
ensemble · KC favored
Elo Static
61.7%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.9%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.6%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.15 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 16 players in cohort