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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHW
CHW

CHW

6-10

6
5
KC

KC

7-9

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
20,552 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

62.1%

open 62.1%

-1.0-2.0KC SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL66.1%58.1%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 63.2%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 6 · KC 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0202011006
KC0032000005

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 97
    42
    28(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 97
    47
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    46
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    40
    28(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 95
    49
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    49
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasKC -185

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

CHW +1.5 cashed (KC lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Tanner Murray

Tanner Murray

LF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr.

SS

1.300OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW6-10
6
5
KC7-9
CHW6-10·KC7-9
CHW

CHW

6-10

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44000002
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-33000010
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-33100021
SPRINT27.148
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
2-55120002
SPRINT26.941
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-33000011
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-33222100
SPRINT26.326
T. MurrayT. Murray★LF
1-22112100
SPRINT26.941
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-44000001
D. HillD. Hill★RF
1-22010001
A. BenintendiA. BenintendiDH
0-11001011
D. HarrisD. HarrisLF
1-22110000
SPRINT28.688
Team7-3232675259
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. TaylorG. Taylor★RP
2.0000020
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
0.1122100
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0322010
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.1200000
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0000030
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.1000100
L. SimsL. SimsRP
1.0000010
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000120
Team9.0655690
KC

KC

7-9

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-44100010
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-22012031
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44001011
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000002
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
2-44021000
SPRINT27.457
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-44000001
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-44221000
SPRINT27.867
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22100012
Team6-3232565069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
5.1655242
N. MearsN. MearsRP
0.2000110
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0111110
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
1.0000010
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0000120
Team9.0766592

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • G. Taylor
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      63%·99.7 mph·23% whiff
    • CU
      19%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·101.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hudson
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      62%·92.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      24%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·89.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      45%·87.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      5%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      39%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      38%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·83.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      25%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      40%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·86.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      13%·98.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Cannon
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      57%·94.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      44%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      44%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Sims
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·81.9 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      25%·88.1 mph·100% whiff

KC

  • N. Cameron
    67 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      31%·90.5 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      22%·80.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      22%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      18%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      27%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.8 mph·— whiff
  • N. Mears
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·82.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      12%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Lange
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      31%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·90.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.6 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      33%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.1 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      8%·82.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

6

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 9CHWCHW2@KCKC0
Apr 10CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 11CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 12CHWCHW6@KCKC5today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 9CHWCHW2@KCKC0
Apr 10CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 11CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 12CHWCHW6@KCKC5today
May 12KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 13KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 14KCKC2@CHWCHW6
Jun 26KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 27KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 28KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 22CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming
Sep 23CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming
Sep 24CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+15240%
KCKC-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 4th Inning

CHWCHW
T. Murray

T. Murray

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

G. Taylor

G. Taylor

RP

Starting pitcher

2.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER

KCKC
B. Witt Jr.

B. Witt Jr.

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.300 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat KC 6-5. Montgomery's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+22pp→ 66% WP

Murray · homered to left (368 feet), Montgomery scored.

CHWTop 4th Inning · 4-3
+28pp→ 56% WP

Montgomery · homered to right (384 feet), Sosa scored.

CHWTop 6th Inning · 5-5
+16pp→ 47% WP

Benintendi · walked, Murakami scored, Quero to second, Sosa to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0202011006
KC0032000005

Period scoring

CHW won 3 · KC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Murray 2

0
3

Inn 3

Jr. 1

2
2

Inn 4

Montgomery 2

Collins 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Benintendi 1

1
0

Inn 7

Sosa 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
KC

Play-by-play · 589 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 6·KC 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  3. B9

    Pasquantino struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

    −13pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  8. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    · ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  9. B9

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  10. B9

    Witt Jr. walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

    +8pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  16. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  17. B9

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  18. B9

    Garcia flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

    −8pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  21. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Maikel Garcia

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  22. B9

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  23. B9

    Isbel struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

    −8pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  28. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Kyle Isbel

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  29. B9

    Domínguez relieved Sims

    ·

    CHW 6·KC 5

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHW 6·KC 5

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

KC

Home

6

Runs

5

7

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

15

TB

7

2

HR

0

5

BB

6

9

K

9

16

LOB

14

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 9·CHW +152/KC -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

KC vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.5%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    61.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.9%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.6%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381