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FINAL+10HOU

HOU

16-23

100

CIN

20-19

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

24,347 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

CIN no-vig %

56.3%

open 54.2% · +2.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.0%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
56.7%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.6%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.7%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.87

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

CIN vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 51 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.6± 3.6low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
6.3± 4.5low
Peter LambertHOU
5.8± 3.5low

Hits

Christian WalkerHOU
1.3± 1.1high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 0.9high
Spencer SteerCIN
1.1± 0.4high

Total bases

JJ BledayCIN
2.4± 2.7low
Christian WalkerHOU
2.4± 2.4high
Spencer SteerCIN
1.8± 1.3high

RBIs

Elly De La CruzCIN
0.8± 1.5high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.8± 1.3high
JJ BledayCIN
0.7± 0.9low

Earned runs

Lance McCullers Jr.HOU
4.0± 2.5low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.0low
Brady SingerCIN
3.0± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 10 · CIN 0 (by 10)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	5	10
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

MLBFri, May 8FinalSeriesHOU leads series 1-0VegasCIN -132

Recap · MLB

ouston Astros went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 10–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

HOU +1.5 cashed (CIN lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

Zach Cole

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

RBI

CIN · top performer

Elly De La Cruz

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box score

HOU

16-23

Final

CIN

20-19

HOU

16-23

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Altuve★2B	1-3	3	2	1	0	0	0	1
Y. Alvarez★LF	2-4	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
I. Paredes★3B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
C. Walker★1B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Smith★RF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Matthews★LF	2-4	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
Z. Dezenzo★LF	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
C. Vazquez★C	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
N. Allen★SS	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Shewmake2B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Whitcomb3B	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Z. ColeCF	1-1	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
Team	13-37	37	10	13	10	4	2	4

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
M. Burrows★SP	7.0	3	0	0	1	6	0
A. BlubaughRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. VanWeyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0
Team	9.0	5	0	0	1	9	0

CIN

20-19

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. Friedl★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Bleday★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. De La Cruz★SS	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Lowe★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. Steer★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Stephenson★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McLain★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Hayes★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	5-32	32	0	5	0	0	1	9

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
N. Lodolo★SP	5.1	5	4	4	1	2	2
P. JohnsonRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	0
T. AntoneRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. TrevinoC	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0

Team	9.0	13	10	10	2	4	4

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

HOU leads series 1-0

May 8

HOU10@

CIN0today

May 9

HOU@

CINupcoming

May 10

HOU@

CINupcoming

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

May 8

HOU10@

CIN0today

May 9

HOU@

CINupcoming

May 10

HOU@

CINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CIN -1.5

1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

HOU+10948%

CIN-13257%

12· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 2nd Inning

HOU

Z. Cole

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

M. Burrows

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

CIN

E. De La Cruz

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

N. Lodolo

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat CIN 10-0. Dezenzo's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs HOU

Score progression

0 lead changes

HOU10

CIN0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOUTop 2nd Inning · 2-0

+19pp→ 62% WP

Dezenzo · homered to right (359 feet), Matthews scored.

HOUBottom 4th Inning · 2-0

+10pp→ 63% WP

Steer · flied out to right.

HOUTop 6th Inning · 4-0

+14pp→ 91% WP

Alvarez · homered to right center (407 feet), Altuve scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	5	10
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

HOU won 4 · CIN won 0

Inn 1

Inn 2

Dezenzo 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

Inn 6

Alvarez 2

Inn 7

Inn 8

Paredes 1

Inn 9

Cole 3

HOU

CIN

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period

event

player

End 9t
End of the 9th inning
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Steer struck out swinging.
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Logan VanWey pitches to Spencer Steer
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Lowe struck out swinging.
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Logan VanWey pitches to Nathaniel Lowe
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Stewart lined out to right.
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Logan VanWey pitches to Sal Stewart
· ·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
De La Cruz singled to left.
·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 7 : Ball In Play
·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 5 : Ball 2
·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
HOU 10·CIN 0
B9
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
·
HOU 10·CIN 0

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

CIN -1.5·O/U 9·HOU +109/CIN -132

DraftKings · via ESPN