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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CHW
CHW

CHW

1-3

9
4
MIA

MIA

3-1

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
6,515 attended

Line movement

6 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIA no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

-1.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL61.2%53.2%MIA NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 9 · MIA 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0044010009
MIA0002100104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Player projections

MIA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    62.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.6%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    46
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    40
    28(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    47
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    46
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    42
    28(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 94
    310
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1/VegasMIA -149

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 9–4.

CHW +1.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

6

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Griffin Conine

Griffin Conine

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW1-3
9
4
MIA3-1
CHW1-3·MIA3-1
CHW

CHW

1-3

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-44226100
SPRINT28.381
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-55110001
SPRINT27.148
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-55113104
SPRINT27.354
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44010002
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-44000001
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
2-33120001
SPRINT28.586
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
2-44220000
SPRINT27.457
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-33000000
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-22200011
Team9-34349992210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
5.0533261
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.2311150
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.1000110
Team9.08444121
MIA

MIA

3-1

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-55121001
SPRINT27.765
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44120011
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000002
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
2-44123101
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT28.381
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-33000011
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-44000001
G. ConineG. Conine★LF
1-11110010
SPRINT27.457
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-22000002
A. SlaterA. SlaterRF
0-11000001
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
0-11000000
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
0-11000011
Team8-33334841412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PaddackC. Paddack★SP
4.0888062
L. BacharL. BacharRP
3.0111130
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0000100
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.0000010
Team9.09992102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • D. Martin
    92 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      26%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·92.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      12%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    51 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      39%·93.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      29%·82.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      12%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·94.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·78.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hicks
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      77%·99.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·86.3 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • C. Paddack
    79 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      28%·85.4 mph·37% whiff
    • FF
      22%·93.2 mph·27% whiff
    • ST
      16%·81.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.3 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    42 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      33%·90.8 mph·71% whiff
    • ST
      31%·87.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      14%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
  • J. King
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      36%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·78.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      9%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      9%·82.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·80.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Petersen
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

9

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Mar 30CHWCHW9@MIAMIA4today
Mar 31CHWCHW2@MIAMIA9
Apr 1CHWCHW0@MIAMIA10

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

Mar 30CHWCHW9@MIAMIA4today
Mar 31CHWCHW2@MIAMIA9
Apr 1CHWCHW0@MIAMIA10

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+12345%
MIAMIA-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 3rd Inning

CHWCHW
M. Vargas

M. Vargas

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

MIAMIA
G. Conine

G. Conine

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 8 ER · 8 H

How it ended

CHW beat MIA 9-4. Hays's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 48% WP

Pereira · doubled to left.

CHWTop 3rd Inning · 4-0
+27pp→ 81% WP

Hays · homered to right (353 feet), Vargas and Murakami scored.

CHWTop 4th Inning · 8-0
+8pp→ 98% WP

Vargas · homered to left (402 feet), Peters, Pereira and Acuña scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0044010009
MIA0002100104

Period scoring

CHW won 3 · MIA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

4
0

Inn 3

Hays 3

4
2

Inn 4

Vargas 4

Hicks 2

0
1

Inn 5

Marsee 1

1
0

Inn 6

Vargas 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Hicks 1

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
MIA

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  3. B9

    Edwards grounded out to second.

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  5. B9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Xavier Edwards

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  6. B9

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  7. B9

    Marsee struck out looking.

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

    −0.6pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  12. B9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Jakob Marsee

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  13. B9

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  14. B9

    Hernández walked.

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

    +0.5pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  20. B9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  21. B9

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  22. B9

    Sanoja flied out to left.

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  24. B9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Javier Sanoja

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  27. T9

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  28. T9

    Hays struck out looking.

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 9·MIA 4

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

9

Runs

4

9

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

16

TB

15

2

HR

1

2

BB

4

10

K

12

7

LOB

15

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8·CHW +123/MIA -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381