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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10MIA
CHW

CHW

1-5

0
10
MIA

MIA

5-1

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
6,505 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIA no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

-1.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL61.2%53.2%MIA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 10 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

CHW 0 · MIA 10 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
MIA4220010110

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 97
    42
    28(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    46
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    47
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 96
    49
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 95
    32
    5(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    205
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1/VegasMIA -149

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Chicago White Sox, 10–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA -1.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Tristan Peters

Tristan Peters

CF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Liam Hicks

Liam Hicks

C

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW1-5
0
10
MIA5-1
CHW1-5·MIA5-1
CHW

CHW

1-5

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-33000002
SPRINT27.148
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-44000002
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000001
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-22000000
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT28.586
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-22000002
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
0-33000000
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT29.597
L. SosaL. Sosa2B
0-11000000
SPRINT26.941
D. HillD. HillRF
0-11000000
Team3-3030030007
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. SmithS. Smith★SP
3.0887211
L. SimsL. SimsRP
2.0100110
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
2.0311130
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0111011
Team8.013109462
MIA

MIA

5-1

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-33100021
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-33110001
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-44321110
SPRINT28.381
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
3-44234100
SPRINT25.614
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-55111001
SPRINT2872
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-55012002
SPRINT28.586
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-33110011
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
2-44120000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
2-44022000
SPRINT28.381
L. JimenezL. Jimenez3B
0-22000000
Team13-3737101310246
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
9.0300070
Team9.0300070

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Smith
    72 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      38%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    39 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      23%·94.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      23%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·77.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.6 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Sims
    31 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·84.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      3%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.3 mph·67% whiff

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    93 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      29%·90.4 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      26%·96.8 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      15%·85.2 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      5%·83.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

13

0

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Mar 30CHWCHW9@MIAMIA4
Mar 31CHWCHW2@MIAMIA9
Apr 1CHWCHW0@MIAMIA10today

Season series

MIA wins series 2-1

Mar 30CHWCHW9@MIAMIA4
Mar 31CHWCHW2@MIAMIA9
Apr 1CHWCHW0@MIAMIA10today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+12345%
MIAMIA-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHWCHW
T. Peters

T. Peters

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Murphy

C. Murphy

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
L. Hicks

L. Hicks

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcherGem

9.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

MIA beat CHW 10-0.

Win probability

MIA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 80% WP

Hicks · singled to center, Marsee scored, Lopez to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
MIA42200101—10

Period scoring

CHW won 0 · MIA won 5

0
4

Inn 1

Caissie 2

0
2

Inn 2

Hicks 2

0
2

Inn 3

Sanoja 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Hicks 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Lopez 1

0

Inn 9

CHW
MIA

Play-by-play · 506 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  2. T9

    Montgomery grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  5. T9

    Sandy Alcantara pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  6. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  7. T9

    Benintendi struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  11. T9

    Sandy Alcantara pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  12. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  13. T9

    Sosa popped out to second.

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  18. T9

    Sandy Alcantara pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  21. B8

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  22. B8

    Caissie struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  23. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  24. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  25. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  28. B8

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Owen Caissie

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  29. B8

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

  30. B8

    Norby flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 0·MIA 10

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

0

Runs

10

3

Hits

13

1

Errors

0

3

TB

25

0

HR

2

0

BB

4

7

K

6

4

LOB

17

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHW +123/MIA -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.8%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    62.2%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.0%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.