Matchup orbital
4
PHI
PHI
8-15
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
7
CHC
CHC
14-9
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CHC wins
PHI 4 · CHC 7 (by 3)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked CHC +10pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
PHI8-15
PHI
14-9CHC
CHC
Recap · MLB
hicago Cubs held off Philadelphia Phillies, 7–4.
CHC +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
CHC win series 4-0
PHI1@CHC5PHI4@CHC7todayPHI2@CHC7PHI7@CHC8Season series
CHC lead series 4-1
CHC7@PHI13CHC10@PHI4CHC11@PHI2PHI1@CHC5PHI4@CHC7todayPHI2@CHC7PHI7@CHC8Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHI -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
PHI+10449%CHC-12656%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 3 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 6th Inning
PHI
K. Schwarber
LFBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS
J. Luzardo
SPStarting pitcher
4.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 4 BB
CHC
S. Suzuki
RFBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS
S. Imanaga
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
7.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB
How it ended
CHC beat PHI 7-4. Busch's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).
Win probability
CHC vs PHI
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBallesteros · walked, Happ scored, Swanson to second, Suzuki to third.
Schwarber · homered to right center (386 feet).
Busch · singled to center, Happ scored and Hoerner scored, Kelly to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | — | 7 |
Period scoring
PHI won 1 · CHC won 3
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Ballesteros 1
Inn 6
Schwarber 1
Busch 2
Inn 7
Suzuki 2
Inn 8
Harper 2
Hoerner 1
Inn 9
Bohm 1
Game flow · key plays
- B6
Busch singled to center, Happ scored and Hoerner scored, Kelly to third.
PHI 1·CHC 3
+21pp
- B6
Suzuki struck out looking.
PHI 1·CHC 1
−9pp
- T6
Schwarber homered to right center (386 feet).
PHI 1·CHC 1
−15pp
- B5
Ballesteros walked, Happ scored, Swanson to second, Suzuki to third.
PHI 0·CHC 1
+12pp
- B5
Busch struck out swinging.
PHI 0·CHC 0
−9pp
- B4
Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Swanson to third.
PHI 0·CHC 0
+7pp
Team stats
PHI
Away
Stat
CHC
Home
6
Hits
12
0
Errors
2
4
Runs
7
Player box score
PHI
8-15
T. Turner★
SS
OPS
0.200
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
K. Schwarber★
LF
OPS
1.833
H-AB
1-3
R
2
RBI
1
HR
1
B. Harper★
1B
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
F. Reyes★
LF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Garcia★
RF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
J.T. Realmuto★
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Bohm★
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
B. Marsh★
LF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
E. Sosa★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
6-34
R
4
RBI
4
HR
2
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T. Turner★SS | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
K. Schwarber★LF | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.833 |
B. Harper★1B | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.250 |
F. Reyes★LF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
A. Garcia★RF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
J.T. Realmuto★C | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
A. Bohm★3B | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
B. Marsh★LF | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
E. Sosa★2B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 6-34 | 4 | 4 | 2 | — |
J. Luzardo★
SP
IP
4.2
H
5
ER
1
K
3
O. Kerkering
RP
IP
0.1
H
0
ER
0
K
0
T. Banks
RP
IP
1.0
H
3
ER
2
K
1
T. Mayza
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
3
K
1
J. Alvarado
RP
IP
0.1
H
2
ER
1
K
1
B. Keller
RP
IP
0.2
H
0
ER
0
K
0
IP
8.0
H
12
ER
7
K
6
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
J. Luzardo★SP | 4.2 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
O. KerkeringRP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T. BanksRP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
T. MayzaRP | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
J. AlvaradoRP | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
B. KellerRP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 8.0 | 12 | 7 | 6 |
CHC
14-9
N. Hoerner★
2B
OPS
1.400
H-AB
2-5
R
2
RBI
1
HR
1
A. Bregman★
3B
OPS
0.750
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
I. Happ★
LF
OPS
0.750
H-AB
1-4
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0
S. Suzuki★
RF
OPS
1.750
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
C. Kelly★
C
OPS
0.650
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Busch★
1B
OPS
0.650
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
0
D. Swanson★
SS
OPS
0.600
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Shaw★
RF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
P. Crow-Armstrong★
CF
OPS
0.800
H-AB
2-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
S. Kingery
3B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
12-36
R
7
RBI
6
HR
2
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N. Hoerner★2B | 2-5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.400 |
A. Bregman★3B | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
I. Happ★LF | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
S. Suzuki★RF | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.750 |
C. Kelly★C | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.650 |
M. Busch★1B | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.650 |
D. Swanson★SS | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 |
M. Shaw★RF | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.800 |
S. Kingery3B | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Team | 12-36 | 7 | 6 | 2 | — |
S. Imanaga★
SP
IP
7.0
H
3
ER
1
K
1
R. Martin
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
2
K
2
J. Webb
RP
IP
0.1
H
2
ER
0
K
0
C. Thielbar
RP
IP
0.2
H
0
ER
0
K
0
IP
9.0
H
6
ER
3
K
3
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
S. Imanaga★SP | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
R. MartinRP | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
J. WebbRP | 0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
C. ThielbarRP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
Betting line
PHI -1.5·O/U 8.5·PHI +104/CHC -126