• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6CHC
CHC

CHC

8-9

10
4
PHI

PHI

8-9

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
37,426 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

PHI no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.5TOTAL61.3%53.3%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 54.5%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 10 · PHI 4 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC00201400310
PHI0300000104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 14·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1/VegasPHI -149

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 10–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHC +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 10.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

C

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Edmundo Sosa

Edmundo Sosa

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC8-9
10
4
PHI8-9
CHC8-9·PHI8-9
CHC

CHC

8-9

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-66123001
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
2-44120021
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
3-55033001
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-55021002
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-55110003
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-22010000
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-44223110
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
2-44220001
SPRINT29.294
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33200021
M. ShawM. ShawRF
0-11000000
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
0-11000001
Team15-40401015101611
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. MartinR. Martin★RP
1.0000010
C. ReaC. ReaSP
6.0433051
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
0.1211000
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.2100120
R. RolisonR. RolisonRP
1.0100000
Team9.0844181
PHI

PHI

8-9

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44011001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-33000011
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-33110000
SPRINT28.175
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-44120000
SPRINT28.381
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-44010001
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
2-44223100
SPRINT28.278
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-33000001
A. BohmA. Bohm3B
0-11000001
Team8-3434484118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. NolaA. Nola★SP
5.0833250
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
0.1143200
B. KellerB. KellerRP
0.2100020
C. ShugartC. ShugartRP
2.0200130
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0333111
Team9.0151096111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Rea
    87 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.4 mph·12% whiff
    • FS
      18%·88.3 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      3%·80.0 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      2%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·77.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Webb
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·85.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.0 mph·— whiff
  • R. Rolison
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      45%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.4 mph·— whiff
  • R. Martin
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      33%·85.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·89.1 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • A. Nola
    87 pitches·30% CSW
    • KC
      29%·79.3 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      28%·91.6 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.6 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      7%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Shugart
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      34%·81.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      28%·90.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      16%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Mayza
    26 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      69%·94.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      28%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      12%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      33%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·97.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      7%·86.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

8

10

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Apr 13CHCCHC7@PHIPHI13
Apr 14CHCCHC10@PHIPHI4today
Apr 15CHCCHC11@PHIPHI2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 13CHCCHC7@PHIPHI13
Apr 14CHCCHC10@PHIPHI4today
Apr 15CHCCHC11@PHIPHI2
Apr 20PHIPHI1@CHCCHC5
Apr 21PHIPHI4@CHCCHC7
Apr 22PHIPHI2@CHCCHC7
Apr 23PHIPHI7@CHCCHC8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+12445%
PHIPHI-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

CHCCHC
C. Kelly

C. Kelly

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Top reliever

6.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H

PHIPHI
E. Sosa

E. Sosa

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat PHI 10-4. Sosa's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+22pp→ 86% WP

Sosa · homered to center (442 feet), Marsh scored and Realmuto scored.

CHCTop 5th Inning · 3-3
+12pp→ 50% WP

Bregman · singled to center, Swanson scored, Busch to second.

CHCTop 6th Inning · 5-3
+21pp→ 82% WP

Hoerner · singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Kelly scored, Swanson to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC00201400310
PHI0300000104

Period scoring

CHC won 4 · PHI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Sosa 3

2
0

Inn 3

Hoerner 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Bregman 1

4
0

Inn 6

Hoerner 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Turner 1

3
0

Inn 9

Kelly 3

CHC
PHI

Play-by-play · 625 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  3. B9

    Sosa grounded into double play, third to second to first, Stott out at second.

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  8. B9

    Ryan Rolison pitches to Edmundo Sosa

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  9. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  10. B9

    Stott reached on infield single to third.

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  14. B9

    Ryan Rolison pitches to Bryson Stott

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  15. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  16. B9

    Realmuto flied out to right.

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  21. B9

    Ryan Rolison pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  22. B9

    Rolison relieved Thielbar

    ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  23. B9

    Amaya as designated hitter.

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  26. T9

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  27. T9

    Busch grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

  30. T9

    Tanner Banks pitches to Michael Busch

    · ·

    CHC 10·PHI 4

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

10

Runs

4

15

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

20

TB

12

1

HR

1

6

BB

1

11

K

8

24

LOB

10

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 10·CHC +124/PHI -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 19, 26sim 98
    1410
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    1611
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 96
    258
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 95
    139
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    149
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 95
    126
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

PHI vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    55.3%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.9%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175