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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SD
SEA

SEA

8-12

2
5
SD

SD

13-6

Petco Park · San Diego, California
39,008 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SD no-vig %

47.4%

open 47.4%

+2.0+1.0SD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL51.4%43.4%SD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SEA 2 · SD 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000020002
SD040000105

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Apr 16·Final/SeriesSD wins series 3-0/VegasSEA -122

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Seattle Mariners, 5–2.

SD +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Brendan Donovan

Brendan Donovan

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
SEA8-12
2
5
SD13-6
SEA8-12·SD13-6
SEA

SEA

8-12

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
2-33120010
SPRINT25.18
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
2-44021001
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-33011002
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000001
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-22000001
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000002
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-22000001
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.662
C. JoeC. JoeRF
0-22000001
M. GarverM. GarverC
0-22000002
Team7-33332720212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
5.1741330
C. WilcoxC. WilcoxRP
1.2211030
C. CriswellC. CriswellRP
1.0100000
Team8.01052360
SD

SD

13-6

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44011011
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-22112010
SPRINT28.483
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-44010001
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
2-44021001
SPRINT24.32
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-44000001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-33110011
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
2-44120000
SPRINT26.530
L. CampusanoL. Campusano★C
1-44111000
SPRINT25.818
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-44110001
Team10-33335105036
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
5.0522170
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
0.1100100
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.2000020
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0100000
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000030
Team9.07222120

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

2

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 3-0

Apr 15SEASEA1@SDSD4
Apr 16SEASEA6@SDSD7
Apr 17SEASEA2@SDSD5today

Season series

SD leads series 3-0

Apr 15SEASEA1@SDSD4
Apr 16SEASEA6@SDSD7
Apr 17SEASEA2@SDSD5today
May 16SDSD2@SEASEA0
May 16SDSD7@SEASEA4
May 17SDSD8@SEASEA3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA-12255%
SDSD+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

SEASEA
B. Donovan

B. Donovan

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SD beat SEA 5-2.

Win probability

SD vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 2nd Inning · 0-4
+10pp→ 90% WP

Tatis Jr. · singled to center, Campusano scored and Cronenworth scored.

SEATop 6th Inning · 1-4
+8pp→ 23% WP

Raleigh · singled to right, Young scored, Donovan to third.

SDTop 6th Inning · 2-4
+10pp→ 80% WP

Joe · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000020002
SD04000010—5

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · SD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
4

Inn 2

Jr. 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Raleigh 1

0
1

Inn 7

Machado 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
SD

Play-by-play · 543 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  2. T9

    Young struck out looking.

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  9. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Cole Young

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  10. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  11. T9

    Garver struck out looking.

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

    +0.8pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  15. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Mitch Garver

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  16. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  17. T9

    Crawford struck out looking.

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

    +1pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  23. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to J.P. Crawford

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  24. T9

    Miller relieved Adam

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 2·SD 5

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 2·SD 5

  27. B8

    ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  28. B8

    Laureano grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cronenworth out at second.

    · ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

  30. B8

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Ramon Laureano

    · ·

    SEA 2·SD 5

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

SD

Home

2

Runs

5

7

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

7

TB

12

0

HR

0

2

BB

3

12

K

6

18

LOB

19

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8.5·SEA -122/SD +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 5, 26sim 97
    143
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 95
    141
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 95
    161
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 93
    121
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 93
    236
    8(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 93
    53
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.8%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    56.1%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.2%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.