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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SD
SEA

SEA

8-10

1
4
SD

SD

11-6

Petco Park · San Diego, California
38,152 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SD no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

+2.0+1.0SD SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL52.9%44.9%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 52.6%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SEA 1 · SD 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0100000001
SD003000014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 3, 26sim 97
    161
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 97
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    51
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 96
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    50
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    56
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 14·Final/SeriesSD wins series 3-0/VegasSEA -115

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Seattle Mariners, 4–1.

SD +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill

CF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA8-10
1
4
SD11-6
SEA8-10·SD11-6
SEA

SEA

8-10

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
0-33000000
SPRINT25.18
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-44000002
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-22000021
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT28.175
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-33000000
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-11001000
SPRINT25.920
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33000001
P. WisdomP. Wisdom3B
0-11000001
Team4-2828141037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
7.0833130
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
1.0311010
Team8.01144140
SD

SD

11-6

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-44111001
SPRINT28.483
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
3-44230000
SPRINT28.688
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000000
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
3-44033000
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-33000011
T. FranceT. France★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT24.74
L. CampusanoL. Campusano★C
1-44010001
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33000000
Team11-34344114014
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
6.0411250
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0000010
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0000100
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000010
Team9.0411370

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

11

1

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 3-0

Apr 15SEASEA1@SDSD4today
Apr 16SEASEA6@SDSD7
Apr 17SEASEA2@SDSD5

Season series

SD leads series 1-0

Apr 15SEASEA1@SDSD4today
Apr 16SEASEA6@SDSD7
Apr 17SEASEA2@SDSD5
May 16SDSD2@SEASEA0
May 16SDSD7@SEASEA4
May 17SDSD8@SEASEA3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA-11553%
SDSD-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

SEASEA
R. Arozarena

R. Arozarena

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

SDSD
J. Merrill

J. Merrill

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat SEA 4-1. Bogaerts's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

SD vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 3rd Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 52% WP

Laureano · tripled to right.

SDBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+21pp→ 80% WP

Bogaerts · singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored and Merrill scored.

SDBottom 8th Inning · 1-3
+8pp→ 97% WP

Merrill · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0100000001
SD00300001—4

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · SD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Canzone 1

0
3

Inn 3

Bogaerts 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Bogaerts 1

0

Inn 9

SEA
SD

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  2. T9

    Crawford grounded out to second.

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  6. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to J.P. Crawford

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  7. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  8. T9

    Raley struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

    +0.8pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  14. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Luke Raley

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  15. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  16. T9

    Arozarena flied out to right.

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

    +2pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  24. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Randy Arozarena

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  25. T9

    Miller relieved Adam

    ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 1·SD 4

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 1·SD 4

  28. B8

    · ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  29. B8

    Campusano struck out looking.

    · ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 1·SD 4

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

SD

Home

1

Runs

4

4

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

4

TB

14

0

HR

0

3

BB

1

7

K

4

13

LOB

18

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7·SEA -115/SD -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    53.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.1%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.0%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.