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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CLE
CHC

CHC

3-4

1
4
CLE

CLE

5-3

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
37,360 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

+2.0+1.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL53.6%45.6%CLE NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CHC 1 · CLE 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0010000001
CLE000010304

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 97
    121
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 97
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    51
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 95
    122
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 94
    140
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasCHC -112

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Chicago Cubs, 4–1.

CLE +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Gabriel Arias

Gabriel Arias

SS

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC3-4
1
4
CLE5-3
CHC3-4·CLE5-3
CHC

CHC

3-4

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-22000020
SPRINT28.278
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000003
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-44020000
SPRINT25.716
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-44000001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-44000002
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33000001
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT29.294
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
1-22011000
SPRINT257
M. BallesterosM. BallesterosDH
0-11000001
Team5-31311510210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HortonC. Horton★SP
1.0000100
C. ReaC. ReaSP
3.1411140
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.2200000
H. HarveyH. HarveyRP
0.2233102
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.1100110
Team8.0944452
CLE

CLE

5-3

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-33100011
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
3-44133100
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-33000011
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
1-44010001
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33000010
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.457
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-22111111
SPRINT26.530
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-22010000
Team9-2929494245
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CantilloJ. Cantillo★SP
5.1411260
M. FestaM. FestaRP
0.2000000
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.0000000
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.0000010
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0100030
Team9.05112100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Rea
    57 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·86.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      4%·87.5 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      2%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • H. Harvey
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      27%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Webb
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.6 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      41%·85.7 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.8 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Horton
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·82.0 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    10 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      50%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·80.0 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • J. Cantillo
    82 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      40%·91.6 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      28%·79.7 mph·55% whiff
    • CU
      17%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Smith
    22 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      68%·96.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      27%·86.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      5%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      69%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·83.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Festa
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      75%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

1

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Apr 3CHCCHC1@CLECLE4today
Apr 4CHCCHC0@CLECLE0
Apr 5CHCCHC1@CLECLE0
Apr 5CHCCHC5@CLECLE6

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

Apr 3CHCCHC1@CLECLE4today
Apr 4CHCCHC0@CLECLE0
Apr 5CHCCHC1@CLECLE0
Apr 5CHCCHC5@CLECLE6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC-11253%
CLECLE-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 7th Inning

CHCCHC
C. Kelly

C. Kelly

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
G. Arias

G. Arias

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat CHC 4-1. Arias's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

CLE vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 64% WP

Amaya · doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.

CLEBottom 7th Inning · 1-2
+23pp→ 79% WP

Arias · homered to right (358 feet).

CLEBottom 7th Inning · 1-4
+15pp→ 94% WP

DeLauter · homered to right (402 feet), Kwan scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0010000001
CLE00001030—4

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · CLE won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Amaya 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

DeLauter 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

DeLauter 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
CLE

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  2. T9

    Swanson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  7. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Dansby Swanson

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  8. T9

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  9. T9

    Busch struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

    +2pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  14. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Michael Busch

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  15. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  16. T9

    Kelly singled to right.

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

    −2pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  21. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Carson Kelly

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  22. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  23. T9

    Happ struck out looking.

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

    +2pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 10 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 4

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

1

Runs

4

5

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

7

TB

16

0

HR

2

2

BB

4

10

K

5

13

LOB

12

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHC -112/CLE -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CLE vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    54.9%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.5%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.5%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.