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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIL
TOR

TOR

7-11

1
2
MIL

MIL

10-8

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
23,098 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIL no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0MIL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL55.1%47.1%MIL NO-VIG %MODEL 53.7%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

TOR 1 · MIL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0010000001
MIL000100102

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Apr 16·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -115

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Toronto Blue Jays, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

MIL +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Andres Gimenez

Andres Gimenez

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Gary Sanchez

Gary Sanchez

DH

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR7-11
1
2
MIL10-8
TOR7-11·MIL10-8
TOR

TOR

7-11

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-33000011
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT26.123
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000000
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.941
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-44000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
2-33120001
SPRINT27.560
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.354
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-22001001
E. JimenezE. JimenezDH
0-11000000
Team6-3131161018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
5.2411160
T. NanceT. NanceRP
0.2111200
J. MantiplyJ. MantiplyRP
1.0100010
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
0.2100010
Team8.0722380
MIL

MIL

10-8

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
0-44000002
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-44020000
SPRINT24.96
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
2-33020010
SPRINT24.12
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-11001000
SPRINT27.148
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
0-22000000
G. JonesG. Jones★LF
1-22010000
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-33010002
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-11001011
J. BauersJ. Bauers1B
0-22000001
Team7-2626272038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SproatB. Sproat★SP
6.2411160
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
0.1100000
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0000020
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0100000
Team9.0611180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • P. Corbin
    79 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      33%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·78.9 mph·70% whiff
    • FF
      14%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·79.1 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Nance
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • CU
      38%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      46%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      15%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·93.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Mantiply
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      50%·80.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      30%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·80.0 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • B. Sproat
    75 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      31%·93.6 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      20%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.3 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Megill
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • KC
      56%·87.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      44%·97.6 mph·25% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      80%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Ashby
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      71%·96.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      14%·79.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      14%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 14TORTOR9@MILMIL7
Apr 15TORTOR1@MILMIL2
Apr 16TORTOR1@MILMIL2today

Season series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 14TORTOR9@MILMIL7
Apr 15TORTOR1@MILMIL2
Apr 16TORTOR1@MILMIL2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR-10551%
MILMIL-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 6th Inning

TORTOR
A. Gimenez

A. Gimenez

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

P. Corbin

P. Corbin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

MILMIL
G. Sanchez

G. Sanchez

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIL beat TOR 2-1.

Win probability

MIL vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 6th Inning · 1-1
+17pp→ 63% WP

Guerrero Jr. · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Varsho out at second, Schneider to third.

TORTop 9th Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 26% WP

Guerrero Jr. · singled to center.

MILTop 9th Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 100% WP

Okamoto · grounded out to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0010000001
MIL00010010—2

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · MIL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Heineman 1

0
1

Inn 4

Rengifo 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Ortiz 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
MIL

Play-by-play · 474 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  2. T9

    Okamoto grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

    +10pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  6. T9

    Angel Zerpa pitches to Kazuma Okamoto

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  7. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  8. T9

    Sosa grounded out to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

    +10pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  10. T9

    Angel Zerpa pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  11. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  12. T9

    Jiménez grounded out to pitcher, Guerrero Jr. to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

    +6pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  17. T9

    Angel Zerpa pitches to Eloy Jimenez

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  18. T9

    Jiménez hit for Sánchez

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  19. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  20. T9

    Guerrero Jr. singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

    −11pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  23. T9

    Angel Zerpa pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  24. T9

    Zerpa relieved Megill

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  25. T9

    Frelick as designated hitter.

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  28. B8

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  29. B8

    Bauers struck out looking.

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

    −2pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

1

Runs

2

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

8

TB

9

0

HR

0

1

BB

3

8

K

8

10

LOB

11

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 8.5·TOR -105/MIL -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

MIL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Patrick CorbinTOR
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    54.7%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.1%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.0%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 98
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 97
    140
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 97
    161
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    121
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    71
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    161
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs