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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHC
CHC

CHC

4-4

1
0
CLE

CLE

5-4

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

Line movement

7 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

+2.0+1.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL49.8%41.8%CLE NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 1 · CLE 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000000101
CLE0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 99
    160
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 95
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 95
    140
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    71
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 94
    161
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 93
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasCHC -131

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

CLE +1.5 cashed (CHC won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto

RF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
CJ Kayfus

CJ Kayfus

LF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC4-4
1
0
CLE5-4
CHC4-4·CLE5-4
CHC

CHC

4-4

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000000
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000004
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000002
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-22000001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-44000001
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-22010010
SPRINT2622
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-22000000
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
1-22011011
SPRINT257
Team2-28281210210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
5.2100540
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.1000100
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.0000000
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0000010
Team9.0100650
CLE

CLE

5-4

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-22000001
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-33000010
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-33000011
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-33000010
SPRINT25.411
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-33000010
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-44000002
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-11000020
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-33000001
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
1-22010000
D. FryD. FryRF
0-11000000
Team1-2525010065
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
6.0100160
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
1.0000020
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.0111100
P. PalletteP. PalletteRP
1.0000020
Team9.02112100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • E. Cabrera
    97 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      43%·92.9 mph·35% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·85.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      12%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      29%·77.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      7%·79.9 mph·50% whiff
  • H. Milner
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      36%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·77.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      21%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      77%·99.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      23%·89.7 mph·50% whiff

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    85 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.5 mph·39% whiff
    • FC
      29%·87.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      15%·74.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      15%·82.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      53%·92.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      32%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • CU
      47%·80.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      47%·86.3 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Pallette
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      33%·81.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

1

1

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Apr 3CHCCHC1@CLECLE4
Apr 4CHCCHC0@CLECLE0
Apr 5CHCCHC1@CLECLE0today
Apr 5CHCCHC5@CLECLE6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 3CHCCHC1@CLECLE4
Apr 4CHCCHC0@CLECLE0
Apr 5CHCCHC1@CLECLE0today
Apr 5CHCCHC5@CLECLE6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC-13157%
CLECLE+10948%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 8th Inning

CHCCHC
M. Conforto

M. Conforto

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 5 BB

CLECLE
C. Kayfus

C. Kayfus

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat CLE 1-0. Amaya's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 6th Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 44% WP

DeLauter · grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kayfus out at home.

CHCTop 8th Inning · 1-0
+23pp→ 74% WP

Amaya · singled to right, Carlson scored.

CHCBottom 8th Inning · 1-0
+22pp→ 80% WP

DeLauter · grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Kwan out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000000101
CLE0000000000

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · CLE won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Amaya 1

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
CLE

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  3. B9

    Schneemann struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  7. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Daniel Schneemann

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  8. B9

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  9. B9

    Naylor lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

    −7pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  13. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Bo Naylor

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  14. B9

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  15. B9

    Manzardo grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

    −8pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  23. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  24. B9

    Palencia relieved Milner

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  27. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  28. T9

    Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hoerner out at second.

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 1·CLE 0

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

1

Runs

0

2

Hits

1

0

Errors

0

2

TB

2

0

HR

0

2

BB

6

10

K

5

12

LOB

13

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHC -131/CLE +109

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CLE vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    55.9%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.4%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.5%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.