
TOR
16-21

TB
24-12
Line movement
200 snapshots
TB spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
TB no-vig %
55.1%
open 57.2% · -2.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TB wins
TOR 0 · TB 3 (by 3)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked TB +7pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Recap · MLB
ampa Bay Rays held off Toronto Blue Jays, 3–0.
TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Tonight's box score
TOR · TB
TOR
16-21
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 | |
| 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.333 | |
| 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | |
| 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| Team | 4-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
TB
24-12
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | |
| 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | |
| 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | |
| 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | |
| 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | |
| 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.167 | |
| 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.000 | |
| Team | 6-28 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
4
Hits
6
0
Runs
3
1
Errors
0
Current series
TB wins series 3-0
Season series
TB leads series 3-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
1.5pt· 6h
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
13· 6h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 4th Inning
M. Straw
RFBatter of the game
2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS
P. Corbin
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
C. Mullins
CFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS
S. McClanahan
SPStarting pitcher
5.2 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB
How it ended
TB beat TOR 3-0.
Win probability
TB vs TOR
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCaminero · grounded into double play, second to first, Vilade out at second, Díaz to third.
Díaz grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Walls out at second.
DeLuca · doubled to center, Aranda scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 |
Period scoring
TOR won 0 · TB won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
DeLuca 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
DeLuca 1
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
Pinango struck out swinging.
TOR 0·TB 2
+5pp
Varsho singled to center.
TOR 0·TB 2
−5pp
Simpson singled to right, DeLuca scored.
TOR 0·TB 2
+9pp
DeLuca doubled to center, Aranda scored.
TOR 0·TB 1
+14pp
Díaz grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Walls out at second.
TOR 0·TB 0
−8pp
Caminero grounded into double play, second to first, Vilade out at second, Díaz to third.
TOR 0·TB 0
−10pp
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
TB
Home
4
Hits
6
1
Errors
0
0
Runs
3
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 7.5·TOR +124/TB -149
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 63 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.7%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
56.5%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.7%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.9%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.75 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen