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FINAL+3TB
TOR

TOR

16-21

0
3
TB

TB

24-12

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
11,275 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

55.1%

open 57.2% · -2.1

+0.5-2.0TB SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL61.2%50.2%TB NO-VIG %MODEL 56.5%May 5, 4 PMMay 6, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TOR 0 · TB 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000000000
TB000200013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

63%Last 7 · 65-38
58%Last 30 · 246-177
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, May 6·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0/VegasTB -149

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Toronto Blue Jays, 3–0.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

TOR · TB

TOR

TOR

16-21

0
PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
G. Springer
G. Springer★DH
0-40000.000
K. Okamoto
K. Okamoto★3B
1-30000.833
V. Guerrero Jr.
V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-40000.000
L. Sosa
L. Sosa★2B
0-20000.000
E. Clement
E. Clement★2B
0-40000.000
D. Schneider
D. Schneider★LF
0-20000.000
M. Straw
M. Straw★RF
2-30001.333
Y. Pinango
Y. Pinango★LF
0-30000.000
T. Heineman
T. Heineman★C
0-20000.000
D. Varsho
D. VarshoCF
1-20001.000
A. Gimenez
A. GimenezSS
0-10000.000
J. Sanchez
J. SanchezLF
0-10000.000
Team4-31000—
PlayerIPHERK
P. Corbin
P. Corbin★SP
5.1521
B. Fisher
B. FisherRP
1.1002
L. Varland
L. VarlandRP
1.0100
M. Fluharty
M. FluhartyRP
0.1000
Team8.0623
TB

TB

24-12

3
PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
Y. Diaz
Y. Diaz★1B
1-40000.500
R. Vilade
R. Vilade★RF
0-20000.333
J. Caminero
J. Caminero★3B
0-40000.000
J. Aranda
J. Aranda★1B
0-11000.667
J. DeLuca
J. DeLuca★RF
1-41100.500
B. Williamson
B. Williamson★2B
0-30000.250
C. Simpson
C. Simpson★LF
1-40100.500
N. Fortes
N. Fortes★C
1-30000.667
T. Walls
T. Walls★SS
1-20001.167
C. Mullins
C. MullinsCF
1-11002.000
Team6-28320—
PlayerIPHERK
S. McClanahan
S. McClanahan★SP
5.2204
K. Kelly
K. KellyRP
1.0200
G. Cleavinger
G. CleavingerRP
0.1001
B. Baker
B. BakerRP
1.0001
I. Seymour
I. SeymourRP
1.0001
Team9.0407

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

6

0

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

May 4TORTOR1@TBTB5
May 5TORTOR3@TBTB4
May 6TORTOR0@TBTB3today

Season series

TB leads series 3-0

May 4TORTOR1@TBTB5
May 5TORTOR3@TBTB4
May 6TORTOR0@TBTB3today
May 11TBTB@TORTORupcoming
May 12TBTB@TORTORupcoming
May 13TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 20TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 21TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 22TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 23TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Aug 18TORTOR@TBTBupcoming
Aug 19TORTOR@TBTBupcoming
Aug 20TORTOR@TBTBupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+12445%
TBTB-14960%

↗13· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 4th Inning

TORTOR
M. Straw

M. Straw

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

P. Corbin

P. Corbin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

TBTB
C. Mullins

C. Mullins

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

S. McClanahan

S. McClanahan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat TOR 3-0.

Win probability

TB vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5T6T7T8T9
TOR0
TB3

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 45% WP

Caminero · grounded into double play, second to first, Vilade out at second, Díaz to third.

TORBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 47% WP

Díaz grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Walls out at second.

TBBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 73% WP

DeLuca · doubled to center, Aranda scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000000000
TB00020001—3

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · TB won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

DeLuca 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

DeLuca 1

0

Inn 9

TOR
TB

Game flow · key plays

  1. T7

    Pinango struck out swinging.

    TOR 0·TB 2

    +5pp

  2. T7

    Varsho singled to center.

    TOR 0·TB 2

    −5pp

  3. B4

    Simpson singled to right, DeLuca scored.

    TOR 0·TB 2

    +9pp

  4. B4

    DeLuca doubled to center, Aranda scored.

    TOR 0·TB 1

    +14pp

  5. B3

    Díaz grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Walls out at second.

    TOR 0·TB 0

    −8pp

  6. B1

    Caminero grounded into double play, second to first, Vilade out at second, Díaz to third.

    TOR 0·TB 0

    −10pp

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

TB

Home

4

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

0

Runs

3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 7.5·TOR +124/TB -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

TB vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 63 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.0± 3.9low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    5.4± 4.5low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.3± 2.9low

Hits

  • Yohendrick PinangoTOR
    1.3± 1.6low
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Kazuma OkamotoTOR
    2.2± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.8± 1.6high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Kazuma OkamotoTOR
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.6± 1.2medium

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerTOR
    3.0± 2.6low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.0± 1.6low
  • Patrick CorbinTOR
    2.0± 1.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.7%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    56.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.7%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.9%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen