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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIL
TOR

TOR

7-10

1
2
MIL

MIL

9-8

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
23,092 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

46.7%

open 46.7%

+2.0+1.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL50.7%42.7%MIL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 9 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

TOR 1 · MIL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR1000000001
MIL000000022

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -126

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Toronto Blue Jays, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

MIL +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho

CF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
William Contreras

William Contreras

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR7-10
1
2
MIL9-8
TOR7-10·MIL9-8
TOR

TOR

7-10

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-33000000
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-33110010
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT26.123
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-22001000
SPRINT25.818
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-33000011
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-44000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.560
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
1-33010001
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
0-11000001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000001
Team5-3030151036
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
6.0200360
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2100000
B. FisherB. FisherRP
0.1000000
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0221100
Team8.0521460
MIL

MIL

9-8

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-44100001
SPRINT28.790
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-44021000
SPRINT24.96
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-33001010
SPRINT28.586
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
0-33000011
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-33000011
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT29.294
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-22000002
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-33010001
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-33110000
SPRINT29.294
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-11000000
Team5-2929252046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PatrickC. Patrick★RP
6.2311220
D. HallD. HallRP
0.1100000
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.0100130
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000010
Team9.0511360

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • D. Cease
    106 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      45%·98.1 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      29%·89.2 mph·46% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      4%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    16 pitches·6% CSW
    • SI
      94%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·74.0 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      54%·91.3 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      38%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      80%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.4 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • C. Patrick
    81 pitches·22% CSW
    • FC
      42%·89.5 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      32%·94.6 mph·18% whiff
    • SV
      19%·85.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    21 pitches·52% CSW
    • CU
      33%·83.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      29%·97.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      14%·91.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      10%·97.2 mph·— whiff
  • A. Uribe
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      50%·99.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·88.1 mph·75% whiff
  • D. Hall
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·81.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

1

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 14TORTOR9@MILMIL7
Apr 15TORTOR1@MILMIL2today
Apr 16TORTOR1@MILMIL2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 14TORTOR9@MILMIL7
Apr 15TORTOR1@MILMIL2today
Apr 16TORTOR1@MILMIL2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR-12656%
MILMIL+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 8th Inning

TORTOR
D. Varsho

D. Varsho

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

MILMIL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Patrick

C. Patrick

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat TOR 2-1. Contreras's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

MIL vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 54% WP

Lukes · grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Valenzuela out at second.

TORBottom 7th Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 63% WP

Perkins · lined out to right.

MILBottom 8th Inning · 1-1
+29pp→ 89% WP

Contreras · singled to right, Hamilton scored, Frelick to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR1000000001
MIL00000002—2

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · MIL won 1

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Contreras 1

0

Inn 9

TOR
MIL

Play-by-play · 514 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  2. T9

    Giménez lined out to left.

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  7. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Andres Gimenez

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  8. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  9. T9

    Clement struck out swinging.

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

    +4pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  15. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Ernie Clement

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  16. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  17. T9

    Okamoto grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

    +4pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  21. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Kazuma Okamoto

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  22. T9

    Uribe relieved Ashby

    ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  25. B8

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  26. B8

    Lockridge grounded out to second.

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  28. B8

    Tyler Rogers pitches to Brandon Lockridge

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  29. B8

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

  30. B8

    Bauers intentionally walked.

    · ·

    TOR 1·MIL 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

1

Runs

2

5

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

5

TB

5

0

HR

0

3

BB

4

6

K

6

8

LOB

16

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 7.5·TOR -126/MIL +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.7%

Close no-vig

46.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

MIL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Patrick CorbinTOR
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    53.7%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.2%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.9%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 16, 26sim 98
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 97
    121
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 95
    161
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 95
    140
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 94
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs