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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8LAA
LAA

LAA

7-7

10
2
CIN

CIN

8-6

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
22,357 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

-1.0-2.0CIN SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL65.6%57.6%CIN NO-VIG %MODEL 63.1%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 10 · CIN 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA01120105010
CIN0000100102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    202
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    205
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    39
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 95
    208
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    32
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    42
    28(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesLAA win series 2-1/VegasCIN -181

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 10–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAA +1.5 cashed (CIN lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz

SS

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA7-7
10
2
CIN8-6
LAA7-7·CIN8-6
LAA

LAA

7-7

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
2-55222101
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-44101010
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-55000002
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
2-55224102
SPRINT2622
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
2-22121020
SPRINT26.735
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-55000001
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
2-55121101
SPRINT27.251
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44110010
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-22211030
SPRINT26.225
Team10-3737101010387
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. KochanowiczJ. Kochanowicz★SP
7.0211420
M. FarrisM. FarrisRP
2.0211121
Team9.0422541
CIN

CIN

8-6

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-44001001
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44000000
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-33111110
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-33000010
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT25.818
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-44000000
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
0-22100011
SPRINT2872
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-33010010
SPRINT26.735
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000010
N. MarteN. MarteRF
0-11000001
Team4-3131242154
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BurnsC. Burns★SP
5.1755422
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.2100030
S. MollS. MollRP
0.1022200
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
0.2233211
P.J. HigginsP.J. HigginsC
1.0000010
Team9.0101010873

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • J. Kochanowicz
    95 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      46%·95.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      26%·90.2 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Farris
    37 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      51%·91.8 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      43%·79.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      5%·79.9 mph·— whiff

CIN

  • C. Burns
    92 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.5 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      41%·91.5 mph·41% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    29 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·90.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      14%·83.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      58%·85.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      38%·97.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      4%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • S. Moll
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      69%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      6%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • P.J. Higgins
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      90%·53.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·53.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

4

10

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 2-1

Apr 10LAALAA10@CINCIN2today
Apr 11LAALAA3@CINCIN7
Apr 12LAALAA9@CINCIN6

Season series

LAA lead series 1-0

Apr 10LAALAA10@CINCIN2today
Apr 11LAALAA3@CINCIN7
Apr 12LAALAA9@CINCIN6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CIN -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+14940%
CINCIN-18164%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 4th Inning

LAALAA
Y. Moncada

Y. Moncada

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Kochanowicz

J. Kochanowicz

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

CINCIN
E. De La Cruz

E. De La Cruz

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Burns

C. Burns

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAA beat CIN 10-2. Neto's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 44% WP

Frazier · walked, Moncada scored, O'Hoppe to second, Lowe to third.

LAATop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 53% WP

Moncada · reached on infield single to shortstop, Soler scored.

LAATop 4th Inning · 4-0
+21pp→ 79% WP

Neto · homered to center (417 feet), Frazier scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA01120105010
CIN0000100102

Period scoring

LAA won 5 · CIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Frazier 1

1
0

Inn 3

Moncada 1

2
0

Inn 4

Neto 2

0
1

Inn 5

Friedl 1

1
0

Inn 6

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 7

5
1

Inn 8

Soler 4

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 9

LAA
CIN

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  3. B9

    Hayes lined out to center.

    · ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  9. B9

    Mitch Farris pitches to Ke'Bryan Hayes

    · ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  10. B9

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  11. B9

    Stephenson singled to left.

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  19. B9

    Mitch Farris pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  20. B9

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  21. B9

    Marte struck out looking.

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  26. B9

    Mitch Farris pitches to Noelvi Marte

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  27. B9

    Marte hit for Benson

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  28. B9

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  29. B9

    Steer grounded out to second.

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 10·CIN 2

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

10

Runs

2

10

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

22

TB

7

3

HR

1

8

BB

5

7

K

4

13

LOB

11

Betting line

CIN -1.5·O/U 9·LAA +149/CIN -181

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CIN vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    61.6%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.2%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.7%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bryce TeodosioLAA · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278