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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+15ATL
ATL

ATL

5-2

17
2
ARI

ARI

3-4

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
21,600 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

+2.0+1.0ARI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL54.0%46.0%ARI NO-VIG %MODEL 50.2%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 17 · ARI 2 (by 15)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL10108200517
ARI0010000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, Apr 2·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasARI -110

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 17–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 15). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 10.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Jorge Mateo

Jorge Mateo

SS

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Jordan Lawlar

Jordan Lawlar

LF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL5-2
17
2
ARI3-4
ATL5-2·ARI3-4
ATL

ATL

5-2

17
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44011011
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-66311001
SPRINT26.632
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
3-55333111
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
1-33112011
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-44112020
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-55221012
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-66122000
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-33211110
SPRINT25.716
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
2-44321110
SPRINT26.428
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
0-11000000
K. FarmerK. FarmerDH
1-11011000
J. MateoJ. MateoSS
1-11112100
SPRINT3099
Team16-4343171617486
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. LopezR. Lopez★RP
5.0411131
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000010
O. BidoO. BidoRP
3.0211110
Team9.0622251
ARI

ARI

3-4

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-44000000
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-33000002
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-11010010
SPRINT26.838
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-33100010
SPRINT26.428
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-44000001
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-22010000
SPRINT25.29
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
0-44000001
J. LawlarJ. Lawlar★LF
1-22111101
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
1-33010000
J. McCannJ. McCannC
0-11000000
SPRINT25.29
J. FernandezJ. FernandezDH
0-22000000
I. VargasI. Vargas1B
2-22021000
SPRINT26.941
T. TawaT. TawaLF
0-11000000
Team6-3232262125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
4.2372332
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
0.1333100
J. RossJ. RossRP
2.0222311
A. HoffmannA. HoffmannRP
1.0100120
J. McCannJ. McCannC
1.0755001
SPRINT25.29
Team9.0161712864

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

6

17

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 3ATLATL17@ARIARI2today
Apr 4ATLATL2@ARIARI0
Apr 4ATLATL1@ARIARI2
Apr 5ATLATL5@ARIARI6

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Apr 3ATLATL17@ARIARI2today
Apr 4ATLATL2@ARIARI0
Apr 4ATLATL1@ARIARI2
Apr 5ATLATL5@ARIARI6
Aug 14ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 15ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 16ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-11052%
ARIARI-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 3rd Inning

ATLATL
J. Mateo

J. Mateo

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

R. Lopez

R. Lopez

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
J. Lawlar

J. Lawlar

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat ARI 17-2. ATL outscored the other side 8-0 in the 5th inning.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 64% WP

Smith · homered to right center (430 feet).

ARIBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 52% WP

Lawlar · homered to left center (424 feet).

ATLTop 5th Inning · 2-1
+10pp→ 62% WP

Albies · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL10108200517
ARI0010000012

Period scoring

ATL won 4 · ARI won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Olson 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
1

Inn 3

Smith 1

Lawlar 1

0
0

Inn 4

8
0

Inn 5

Riley 2

2
0

Inn 6

Dub 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

5
1

Inn 9

Mateo 2

Vargas 1

ATL
ARI

Play-by-play · 643 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  3. B9

    Tawa popped out to first.

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  8. B9

    Osvaldo Bido pitches to Tim Tawa

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  9. B9

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  10. B9

    Santana struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  14. B9

    Osvaldo Bido pitches to Carlos Santana

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  15. B9

    ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  16. B9

    Vargas doubled to right, Moreno scored.

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  21. B9

    Osvaldo Bido pitches to Ildemaro Vargas

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 2

  22. B9

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  23. B9

    Thomas lined out to center.

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  25. B9

    Osvaldo Bido pitches to Alek Thomas

    · ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  26. B9

    ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  27. B9

    Moreno walked.

    ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATL 17·ARI 1

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

17

Runs

2

16

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

33

TB

12

4

HR

1

8

BB

2

6

K

5

17

LOB

13

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 9·ATL -110/ARI -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 13, 26sim 95
    297
    1(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 94
    514
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    1111
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 93
    79
    6(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 93
    217
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 92
    2411
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ARI vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.7± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    52.2%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.7%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.5%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496