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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYY
KC

KC

7-13

2
4
NYY

NYY

11-9

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
44,244 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL65.6%57.6%NYY NO-VIG %MODEL 62.1%May 2, 9 AMMay 29, 6 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

KC 2 · NYY 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000010102
NYY000200024

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0/VegasNYY -181

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Kansas City Royals, 4–2.

NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Vinnie Pasquantino

Vinnie Pasquantino

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ryan McMahon

Ryan McMahon

3B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC7-13
2
4
NYY11-9
KC7-13·NYY11-9
KC

KC

7-13

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-33100011
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-44122100
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000002
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-22000022
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.688
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-44010003
SPRINT27.148
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-22000000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22000000
J. IndiaJ. India2B
0-22000001
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000000
Team4-32322421310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
6.0322361
E. MorganE. MorganRP
1.0000200
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0222021
Team8.0544582
NYY

NYY

11-9

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44000000
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-44000003
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-44222101
SPRINT26.941
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
0-33000000
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-22000021
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-22000011
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-22000010
R. McMahonR. McMahon3B
1-11112100
SPRINT2622
Team5-2929454258
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
6.0310260
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.0000010
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0111011
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000120
Team9.04213101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • M. Wacha
    97 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      23%·93.4 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      22%·80.8 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.1 mph·44% whiff
    • FC
      16%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      9%·75.6 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Morgan
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      37%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      30%·77.9 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Lange
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      39%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      28%·90.9 mph·33% whiff

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    93 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      42%·97.7 mph·30% whiff
    • FC
      26%·93.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·83.6 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      3%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • CU
      35%·75.9 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      35%·90.6 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Doval
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      44%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·98.1 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Headrick
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      18%·85.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

5

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

Apr 17KCKC2@NYYNYY4today
Apr 18KCKC4@NYYNYY13
Apr 19KCKC0@NYYNYY7

Season series

NYY lead series 1-0

Apr 17KCKC2@NYYNYY4today
Apr 18KCKC4@NYYNYY13
Apr 19KCKC0@NYYNYY7
May 25NYYNYY4@KCKC3
May 26NYYNYY15@KCKC1
May 27NYYNYY7@KCKC0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC+14940%
NYYNYY-18164%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 35pp · Bottom 8th Inning

KCKC
V. Pasquantino

V. Pasquantino

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

NYYNYY
R. McMahon

R. McMahon

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat KC 4-2. McMahon's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (35pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 84% WP

Rice · homered to right (364 feet), Bellinger scored.

KCTop 8th Inning · 2-2
+22pp→ 35% WP

Pasquantino · homered to right (339 feet).

NYYBottom 8th Inning · 2-4
+35pp→ 94% WP

McMahon · homered to left (372 feet), Rice scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000010102
NYY00020002—4

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

2

Runs

4

4

Hits

5

0

Errors

2

7

TB

12

1

HR

2

3

BB

5

10

K

8

14

LOB

13

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8·KC +149/NYY -181

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

NYY vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

KC won 1 · NYY won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Rice 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
2

Inn 8

Pasquantino 1

McMahon 2

0

Inn 9

KC
NYY

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  2. T9

    India struck out swinging.

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  7. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Jonathan India

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  8. T9

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  9. T9

    Caglianone struck out swinging.

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

    +4pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  14. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Jac Caglianone

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  15. T9

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  16. T9

    Thomas lined out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

    +6pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  21. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Lane Thomas

    · ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  22. T9

    ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  23. T9

    Jensen walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

    −6pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  29. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Carter Jensen

    ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

  30. T9

    Bednar relieved Doval

    ·

    KC 2·NYY 4

Player projections

NYY vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Stephen KolekKC
    2.4± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    60.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.3%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 24, 26sim 96
    223
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 96
    266
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 96
    12
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 95
    222
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 95
    221
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 95
    302
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175