MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SD

SEA

8-11

12-6

Petco Park · San Diego, California

46,095 attended

Line movement

17 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
55.0%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.6%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.6%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SD vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 65 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.2high
Samad TaylorSD
1.3± 1.2low
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Colt EmersonSEA
2.1± 1.8high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.8high
Samad TaylorSD
1.8± 2.6low

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.8low
Colt EmersonSEA
0.7± 0.8high
Josh NaylorSEA
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

.713

OPS

◀

.717

.658

.316

OBP

◀

.319

.293

4.26

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.91

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SEA 6 · SD 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	6
SD	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Donovan3B	.294	3	0	1	2	0	1	2
C. RaleighC	.151	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. RodriguezCF	.194	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Naylor1B	.125	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. ArozarenaLF	.299	4	3	2	0	0	1	0
L. RaleyRF	.339	5	2	4	2	1	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.205	4	0	1	2	0	1	1
C. Young2B	.215	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
L. Rivas3B	.171	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
Team		36	6	10	6	1	7	12

Player

AVG

RBI

.294

.151

.194

.125

.299

.339

.205

.215

.171

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
E. HancockSP	6.0	4	2	2	1	6	98
E. BazardoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
G. SpeierRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
A. MunozRP	0.2	4	5	5	1	1	26
J. FerrerRP	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	5
Team	8.2	10	7	7	2	7	152

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.0

Team

8.2

152

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. LaureanoLF	.292	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
J. MerrillCF	.261	5	1	2	2	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.284	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
M. Machado3B	.185	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
G. Sheets1B	.241	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.179	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. France1B	.273	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.140	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. FerminC	.161	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.242	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.320	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		35	7	10	7	1	2	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. VasquezSP	4.0	5	4	4	4	6	85
R. MarinaccioRP	2.0	3	2	2	1	2	42
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	25
A. JacobRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	3	34
Team	9.0	10	6	6	7	12	186

Team

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SD vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.