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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TB
TB

TB

9-7

8
5
CHW

CHW

6-11

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
14,648 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CHW no-vig %

44.0%

open 44.0%

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL48.0%40.0%CHW NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 5 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 8 · CHW 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB3010022008
CHW0030000025

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    308
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 95
    63
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 94
    66
    9(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    267
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    247
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 94
    304
    9(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+117

Close price

+117

Open no-vig

44.0%

Close no-vig

44.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Apr 14·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0/VegasTB -142

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 8–5.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Ben Williamson

Ben Williamson

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Tristan Peters

Tristan Peters

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB9-7
8
5
CHW6-11
TB9-7·CHW6-11
TB

TB

9-7

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-55021000
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
1-33110022
SPRINT25.29
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-33100020
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
3-55331001
SPRINT28.483
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
2-33223011
SPRINT28.381
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-33010000
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
1-55011002
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-44111000
SPRINT26.225
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-33010011
Team12-34348127067
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. McClanahanS. McClanahan★SP
5.0232441
H. BiggeH. BiggeRP
1.0000200
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
1.0100010
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
1.2222111
B. BakerB. BakerRP
0.1000000
Team9.0554762
CHW

CHW

6-11

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44100010
SPRINT28.381
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-33110010
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-33212120
SPRINT27.148
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
1-44113102
SPRINT27.457
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-44000011
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000001
T. MurrayT. Murray★LF
1-22010000
D. HillD. Hill★RF
0-22000000
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-44000001
T. PetersT. PetersCF
1-11010000
SPRINT28.586
A. BenintendiA. BenintendiDH
0-11000011
D. HarrisD. HarrisLF
0-11000010
Team5-3333555276
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. SchultzN. Schultz★SP
4.1343440
L. SimsL. SimsRP
1.1322110
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.1322110
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.0200000
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0100010
Team9.01287670

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • S. McClanahan
    83 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.7 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      30%·86.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      73%·95.3 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      23%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·92.2 mph·— whiff
  • H. Bigge
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      55%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      36%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·78.8 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      5%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Englert
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      42%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      17%·75.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·83.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      83%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·82.0 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • N. Schultz
    82 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      29%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.2 mph·45% whiff
    • ST
      22%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·90.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      2%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    33 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      48%·88.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      39%·83.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      12%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Sims
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      56%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      12%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hudson
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      75%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·83.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    7 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      57%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·89.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

5

8

Runs

5

2

Errors

1

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

Apr 14TBTB8@CHWCHW5today
Apr 15TBTB8@CHWCHW3
Apr 16TBTB5@CHWCHW3

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

Apr 14TBTB8@CHWCHW5today
Apr 15TBTB8@CHWCHW3
Apr 16TBTB5@CHWCHW3
Jul 31CHWCHW@TBTBupcoming
Aug 1CHWCHW@TBTBupcoming
Aug 2CHWCHW@TBTBupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-14259%
CHWCHW+11746%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

TBTB
B. Williamson

B. Williamson

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

S. McClanahan

S. McClanahan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

CHWCHW
T. Peters

T. Peters

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

N. Schultz

N. Schultz

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

TB beat CHW 8-5. Pereira's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 69% WP

Vilade · doubled to left, Aranda scored, Caminero to third.

CHWBottom 3rd Inning · 4-3
+20pp→ 39% WP

Pereira · homered to left center (416 feet), Meidroth scored and Murakami scored.

TBTop 6th Inning · 5-3
+11pp→ 78% WP

Fortes · reached on infield single to third, Williamson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB3010022008
CHW0030000025

Period scoring

TB won 3 · CHW won 2

3
0

Inn 1

Williamson 2

0
0

Inn 2

1
3

Inn 3

Williamson 1

Pereira 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Fortes 1

2
0

Inn 7

Williamson 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Murakami 2

TB
CHW

Play-by-play · 626 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 8·CHW 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  3. B9

    Quero flied out to center.

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  8. B9

    Peters to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  9. B9

    Peters to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  12. B9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Edgar Quero

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  13. B9

    Baker relieved Gómez

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  14. B9

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  15. B9

    Peters singled to right.

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

    +0.9pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  19. B9

    Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Tristan Peters

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  20. B9

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  21. B9

    Murakami homered to right (398 feet), Vargas scored.

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  24. B9

    Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Munetaka Murakami

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 5

  25. B9

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  26. B9

    Meidroth popped out to first.

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

    −0.6pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

8

Runs

5

12

Hits

5

2

Errors

1

16

TB

11

0

HR

2

6

BB

7

7

K

6

14

LOB

19

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·TB -142/CHW +117

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

CHW vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Chandler SimpsonTB
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    47.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.7%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.