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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6CLE
CLE

CLE

9-6

6
0
ATL

ATL

9-6

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
40,195 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

ATL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

ATL no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

+2.0+1.0ATL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL56.2%48.2%ATL NO-VIG %MODEL 49.6%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 6 · ATL 0 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE1000010136
ATL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -120

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CLE -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez

3B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE9-6
6
0
ATL9-6
CLE9-6·ATL9-6
CLE

CLE

9-6

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-44100010
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
2-55220000
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
2-44221111
SPRINT27.251
D. FryD. Fry★RF
0-22000001
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-44011010
SPRINT26.941
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-44001000
J. BritoJ. Brito★2B
0-22000020
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
1-33010010
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000011
D. SchneemannD. SchneemannCF
1-22112011
SPRINT27.457
Team7-3333675184
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. MessickP. Messick★SP
6.2400250
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
0.1000000
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.0000020
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.0100120
Team9.0500390
ATL

ATL

9-6

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-33010011
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-33000010
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-44000001
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-44000002
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-44010000
SPRINT25.18
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
0-22000001
D. SmithD. SmithDH
0-11000000
Team5-3232050039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. PerezM. Perez★SP
5.0211321
J. PayampsJ. PayampsRP
0.1211010
A. BummerA. BummerRP
0.2000200
O. BidoO. BidoRP
2.2233210
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
0.1111100
Team9.0766841

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • P. Messick
    84 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      35%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·84.6 mph·36% whiff
    • CU
      14%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      32%·84.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      25%·90.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      79%·95.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      21%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • CH
      100%·84.1 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • M. Perez
    86 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      34%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      28%·82.6 mph·19% whiff
    • FC
      24%·86.8 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      9%·76.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      5%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Bido
    50 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      48%·88.0 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      32%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bummer
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      27%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·80.0 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      18%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·90.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kinley
    16 pitches·6% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Payamps
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      45%·84.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      9%·90.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

6

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Apr 10CLECLE5@ATLATL11
Apr 11CLECLE6@ATLATL0today
Apr 12CLECLE1@ATLATL13

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 10CLECLE5@ATLATL11
Apr 11CLECLE6@ATLATL0today
Apr 12CLECLE1@ATLATL13

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+10050%
ATLATL-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 1st Inning

CLECLE
J. Ramirez

J. Ramirez

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

M. Perez

M. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CLE beat ATL 6-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 55% WP

Ram · írez homered to left (403 feet).

CLETop 6th Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 76% WP

Ram · írez singled to right, Martínez to third.

CLETop 8th Inning · 3-0
+9pp→ 93% WP

DeLauter · doubled to right, Schneemann scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE1000010136
ATL0000000000

Period scoring

CLE won 4 · ATL won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Hoskins 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

DeLauter 1

3
0

Inn 9

Schneemann 2

CLE
ATL

Play-by-play · 600 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  3. B9

    Heim fouled out to third.

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  7. B9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Jonah Heim

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  8. B9

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  9. B9

    Yastrzemski struck out looking.

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  19. B9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  20. B9

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  21. B9

    Dubón struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

    −0.9pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  28. B9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  29. B9

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

  30. B9

    Riley walked.

    · ·

    CLE 6·ATL 0

    +0.8pp

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

6

Runs

0

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

12

TB

8

1

HR

0

8

BB

3

4

K

9

15

LOB

13

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 8·CLE +100/ATL -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ATL vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    51.7%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.2%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.0%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    51
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    154
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    121
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    50
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 94
    224
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 93
    52
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs