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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8SEA
CLE

CLE

2-2

0
8
SEA

SEA

2-2

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
30,800 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL61.2%53.2%SEA NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 29, 1 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

CLE 0 · SEA 8 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0000000000
SEA000421018

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 98
    51
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 95
    56
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    56
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    121
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 94
    165
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    56
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasSEA -149

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Cleveland Guardians, 8–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Chase DeLauter

Chase DeLauter

RF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Brendan Donovan

Brendan Donovan

3B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE2-2
0
8
SEA2-2
CLE2-2·SEA2-2
CLE

CLE

2-2

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-33000000
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-22000012
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-33000002
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-33000003
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.457
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-33000002
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-22000002
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000000
A. MartinezA. MartinezLF
0-11000001
SPRINT27.765
D. FryD. FryRF
0-11000000
SPRINT25.716
Team2-27270200114
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
4.1666351
P. PalletteP. PalletteRP
1.2211110
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
2.0110120
Team8.0987581
SEA

SEA

2-2

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
2-33223101
SPRINT25.18
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44011011
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44200010
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000011
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44122010
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-55011003
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-33110000
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33110010
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
1-44111002
SPRINT27.560
Team9-3434898158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. HancockE. Hancock★SP
6.0000190
C. CriswellC. CriswellRP
3.0200050
Team9.02001140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    93 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      37%·92.3 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      29%·74.0 mph·27% whiff
    • FC
      24%·86.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Pallette
    38 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.8 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      26%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Holderman
    35 pitches·34% CSW
    • SI
      46%·96.6 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      46%·84.7 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.9 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • E. Hancock
    97 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.5 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      26%·77.7 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Criswell
    44 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      34%·85.4 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      30%·90.7 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      23%·87.2 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      14%·78.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

9

0

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Mar 27CLECLE6@SEASEA4
Mar 28CLECLE1@SEASEA5
Mar 29CLECLE6@SEASEA5
Mar 29CLECLE0@SEASEA8today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Mar 27CLECLE6@SEASEA4
Mar 28CLECLE1@SEASEA5
Mar 29CLECLE6@SEASEA5
Mar 29CLECLE0@SEASEA8today
Jun 26SEASEA@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 27SEASEA@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 28SEASEA@CLECLEupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+12345%
SEASEA-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CLECLE
C. DeLauter

C. DeLauter

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
B. Donovan

B. Donovan

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

E. Hancock

E. Hancock

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat CLE 8-0. Donovan's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

SEA vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 4th Inning · 0-4
+21pp→ 91% WP

Donovan · homered to right (340 feet), Young scored and Rivas scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0000000000
SEA00042101—8

Period scoring

CLE won 0 · SEA won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
4

Inn 4

Donovan 3

0
2

Inn 5

Arozarena 1

0
1

Inn 6

Raleigh 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Arozarena 1

0

Inn 9

CLE
SEA

Play-by-play · 562 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  2. T9

    Fry flied out to left.

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  8. T9

    Cooper Criswell pitches to David Fry

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  9. T9

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  10. T9

    Martínez struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  17. T9

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Angel Martinez

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  18. T9

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  19. T9

    Rocchio flied out to left.

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  21. T9

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Brayan Rocchio

    ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  24. B8

    · ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  25. B8

    Raley struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  29. B8

    Colin Holderman pitches to Luke Raley

    · ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

  30. B8

    · ·

    CLE 0·SEA 8

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

0

Runs

8

2

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

2

TB

15

0

HR

1

1

BB

5

14

K

8

6

LOB

21

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7.5·CLE +123/SEA -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SEA vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    53.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.4%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175