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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SEA
CLE

CLE

1-1

1
5
SEA

SEA

1-1

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
36,987 attended

Line movement

20 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SEA no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL64.8%56.8%SEA NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

CLE 1 · SEA 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE1000000001
SEA000302005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, Mar 27·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasSEA -175

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Cleveland Guardians, 5–1.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Chase DeLauter

Chase DeLauter

RF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cole Young

Cole Young

2B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE1-1
1
5
SEA1-1
CLE1-1·SEA1-1
CLE

CLE

1-1

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-44111101
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000000
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-44000004
SPRINT25.411
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
1-33010010
SPRINT27.354
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-33000012
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-33000010
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-33000002
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-22000000
Team4-3030141139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
5.0233671
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
1.0122111
P. PalletteP. PalletteRP
2.0000020
Team8.03557102
SEA

SEA

1-1

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
0-22000021
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-44000004
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-33000012
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000000
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-11200030
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-44112101
SPRINT28.175
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-22100010
SPRINT25.920
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33113101
SPRINT27.662
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT27.560
Team3-26265352710
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
6.0211261
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0000110
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0100000
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0100020
Team9.0411391

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SEA

  • E. Bazardo
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      54%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      46%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Munoz
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      65%·85.3 mph·71% whiff
    • FF
      30%·97.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      5%·97.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

3

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Mar 27CLECLE6@SEASEA4
Mar 28CLECLE1@SEASEA5today
Mar 29CLECLE6@SEASEA5
Mar 29CLECLE0@SEASEA8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 27CLECLE6@SEASEA4
Mar 28CLECLE1@SEASEA5today
Mar 29CLECLE6@SEASEA5
Mar 29CLECLE0@SEASEA8
Jun 26SEASEA@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 27SEASEA@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 28SEASEA@CLECLEupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+14441%
SEASEA-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 37pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CLECLE
C. DeLauter

C. DeLauter

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 6 BB

SEASEA
C. Young

C. Young

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat CLE 5-1. Young's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Win probability

SEA vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 3rd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 58% WP

Rivas · tripled to right.

SEABottom 4th Inning · 1-3
+37pp→ 80% WP

Young · homered to right center (367 feet), Arozarena scored and Canzone scored.

SEABottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+21pp→ 86% WP

Donovan · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE1000000001
SEA00030200—5

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · SEA won 2

1
0

Inn 1

DeLauter 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Young 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Raley 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CLE
SEA

Play-by-play · 521 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  2. T9

    Kayfus grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  5. T9

    Naylor to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  6. T9

    Naylor to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  8. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to CJ Kayfus

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  9. T9

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  10. T9

    Hoskins struck out looking.

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

    +1pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  19. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Rhys Hoskins

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  20. T9

    ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  21. T9

    Naylor singled to left.

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

    −0.7pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  23. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Bo Naylor

    · ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  24. T9

    ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  25. T9

    Manzardo struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

    +0.8pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 1·SEA 5

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

1

Runs

5

4

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

7

TB

11

1

HR

2

3

BB

7

9

K

10

13

LOB

12

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7·CLE +144/SEA -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 98
    50
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    121
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    56
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 95
    161
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 93
    56
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

SEA vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    53.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.5%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.4%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.