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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TOR
TOR

TOR

7-9

9
7
MIL

MIL

8-8

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
25,143 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

52.6%

open 52.6%

+2.0+1.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL56.6%48.6%MIL NO-VIG %MODEL 54.1%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 9 · MIL 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
TOR00001101339
MIL00030010217

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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MLB·Tue, Apr 14·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -122

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 9–7.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Myles Straw

Myles Straw

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
TOR7-9
9
7
MIL8-8
TOR7-9·MIL8-8
TOR

TOR

7-9

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-55111001
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-55121101
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-55122000
SPRINT26.123
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
2-44120010
E. JimenezE. Jimenez★DH
0-33000010
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-22000001
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
2-44121001
SPRINT26.123
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-44112101
SPRINT27.560
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
0-22000001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
1-11112000
SPRINT29.597
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
1-33110001
L. SosaL. Sosa2B
1-11110000
T. HeinemanT. HeinemanC
0-11000000
Team13-40409139227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
5.0633351
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
1.0000120
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0111021
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
0.2222310
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.1210020
Team10.012767122
MIL

MIL

8-8

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-44110021
SPRINT28.790
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-55021010
SPRINT24.96
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
3-66231003
SPRINT28.586
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
1-55211112
SPRINT24.12
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-44113111
SPRINT2744
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
2-33020000
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-33010021
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-44100001
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-22000002
B. LockridgeB. LockridgeLF
1-22011000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo3B
0-33000001
Team12-414171272712
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
5.1522052
D. HallD. HallRP
0.2000000
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0100010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0211010
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0333100
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0232100
Team10.01398272

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    97 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      58%·93.8 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      40%·84.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      2%·84.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    32 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      31%·90.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      31%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      28%·96.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      47%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      47%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • CU
      47%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·88.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      12%·92.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      82%·83.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      18%·73.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FC
      64%·90.4 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      36%·83.7 mph·50% whiff

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    76 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      54%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      32%·93.8 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      13%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      1%·92.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Uribe
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      60%·98.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      40%·86.7 mph·20% whiff
  • T. Megill
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      55%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      45%·88.0 mph·20% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      56%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.3 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • ST
      44%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·83.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

12

9

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 14TORTOR9@MILMIL7today
Apr 15TORTOR1@MILMIL2
Apr 16TORTOR1@MILMIL2

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Apr 14TORTOR9@MILMIL7today
Apr 15TORTOR1@MILMIL2
Apr 16TORTOR1@MILMIL2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+10250%
MILMIL-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 45pp · Bottom 9th Inning

TORTOR
M. Straw

M. Straw

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H

How it ended

TOR beat MIL 9-7. Lockridge's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 9th Inning · 3-4
+31pp→ 53% WP

Schneider · hit a ground rule double, Straw to third.

MILBottom 9th Inning · 6-6
+45pp→ 62% WP

Lockridge · doubled to left, Turang scored, Bauers to third.

TORTop 10th Inning · 7-6
+29pp→ 66% WP

Guerrero Jr. · doubled to left, Clement scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
TOR00001101339
MIL00030010217

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

9

Runs

7

13

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

22

TB

19

2

HR

2

2

BB

7

7

K

12

13

LOB

27

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 7.5·TOR +102/MIL -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

MIL vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Period scoring

TOR won 5 · MIL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Bauers 3

1
0

Inn 5

Gim 1

1
0

Inn 6

Varsho 1

0
1

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Jr. 1

3
2

Inn 9

Okamoto 1

Turang 1

3
1

Inn 10

Straw 2

Contreras 1

TOR
MIL

Play-by-play · 682 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  2. B10

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  3. B10

    Sánchez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

    −11pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  5. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  6. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  7. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  8. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  9. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  10. B10

    Louis Varland pitches to Gary Sanchez

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  11. B10

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  12. B10

    Turang singled to right, Contreras to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

    +5pp

  13. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  14. B10

    Louis Varland pitches to Brice Turang

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  15. B10

    ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  16. B10

    Contreras singled to left, Ortiz scored.

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

    +4pp

  17. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  18. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

  19. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

  20. B10

    Louis Varland pitches to William Contreras

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 7

  21. B10

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

  22. B10

    Frelick flied out to center.

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

    −4pp

  23. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

  24. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

  25. B10

    Louis Varland pitches to Sal Frelick

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

  26. B10

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

  27. B10

    Rengifo grounded out to pitcher, Ortiz to third.

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

    −4pp

  28. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

  29. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

  30. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 9·MIL 6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

MIL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Patrick CorbinTOR
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.9%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    55.0%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.6%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.2%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 16, 26sim 96
    126
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    1610
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 94
    165
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    1611
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 93
    292
    8(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 93
    167
    22(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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