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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6PHI
CHC

CHC

7-9

7
13
PHI

PHI

8-8

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
36,045 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PHI no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL66.2%58.2%PHI NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 10 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

CHC 7 · PHI 13 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0002000507
PHI1120531013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Apr 13·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1/VegasPHI -186

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Chicago Cubs, 13–7. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Moises Ballesteros

Moises Ballesteros

DH

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

3.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

4

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC7-9
7
13
PHI8-8
CHC7-9·PHI8-8
CHC

CHC

7-9

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-33000002
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44010011
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44011010
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-55120002
SPRINT27.662
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-22110010
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33212111
SPRINT27.867
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
2-44120002
SPRINT257
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-55111002
SPRINT29.294
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33000011
S. KingeryS. Kingery3B
0-22000000
M. BallesterosM. BallesterosDH
2-22121000
SPRINT24.53
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
0-11000001
Team11-383871151512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AssadJ. Assad★SP
4.11199232
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
0.2000010
C. BarnesC. BarnesRP
3.0443310
Team8.0151312552
PHI

PHI

8-8

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44110000
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-33423210
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-33210010
SPRINT2744
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
2-44221001
SPRINT26.735
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
3-44232010
SPRINT28.175
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-44012001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-44111010
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
3-55033000
SPRINT28.381
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-55000002
E. SosaE. Sosa2B
1-11110000
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000001
Team15-3838131512255
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
6.0622381
S. JohnsonS. JohnsonSP
1.2453210
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.1100030
Team9.011755121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • J. Assad
    82 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      45%·92.9 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      16%·88.3 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      7%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.1 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Barnes
    62 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      40%·89.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      26%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Webb
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      38%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.2 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    96 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.3 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      35%·86.9 mph·64% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Johnson
    50 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      42%·97.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      38%·88.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      2%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • ST
      56%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      11%·91.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

15

7

Runs

13

1

Errors

3

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Apr 13CHCCHC7@PHIPHI13today
Apr 14CHCCHC10@PHIPHI4
Apr 15CHCCHC11@PHIPHI2

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Apr 13CHCCHC7@PHIPHI13today
Apr 14CHCCHC10@PHIPHI4
Apr 15CHCCHC11@PHIPHI2
Apr 20PHIPHI1@CHCCHC5
Apr 21PHIPHI4@CHCCHC7
Apr 22PHIPHI2@CHCCHC7
Apr 23PHIPHI7@CHCCHC8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+15340%
PHIPHI-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 5th Inning

CHCCHC
M. Ballesteros

M. Ballesteros

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Assad

J. Assad

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 9 ER · 11 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.417 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PHI beat CHC 13-7.

Win probability

PHI vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 75% WP

Schwarber · homered to center (414 feet).

CHCTop 4th Inning · 2-4
+8pp→ 19% WP

Swanson · homered to right (359 feet), Kelly scored.

PHIBottom 5th Inning · 2-4
+12pp→ 87% WP

Schwarber · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0002000507
PHI11205310—13

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · PHI won 6

0
1

Inn 1

Schwarber 1

0
1

Inn 2

Realmuto 1

0
2

Inn 3

Schwarber 2

2
0

Inn 4

Swanson 2

0
5

Inn 5

Marsh 2

0
3

Inn 6

Garc 1

0
1

Inn 7

Marsh 1

5
0

Inn 8

Crow-Armstrong 2

0

Inn 9

CHC
PHI

Play-by-play · 633 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  2. T9

    Crow-Armstrong flied out to center.

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  4. T9

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  5. T9

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  6. T9

    Amaya struck out looking.

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  12. T9

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Miguel Amaya

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  13. T9

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  14. T9

    Conforto struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  18. T9

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Michael Conforto

    · ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  19. T9

    Conforto hit for Swanson

    ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  20. T9

    ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  21. T9

    Ballesteros doubled to center.

    ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  28. T9

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Moises Ballesteros

    ·

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHC 7·PHI 13

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHC 7·PHI 13

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

7

Runs

13

11

Hits

15

1

Errors

3

16

TB

23

1

HR

2

5

BB

5

12

K

5

27

LOB

17

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8.5·CHC +153/PHI -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+153

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

PHI vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    53.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.4%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.6%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 2, 26sim 93
    514
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 93
    149
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 92
    1611
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 92
    68
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 91
    139
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 91
    1610
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs