• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1CLE
CHC

CHC

4-5

5
6
CLE

CLE

6-4

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
19,791 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

CLE no-vig %

47.7%

open 47.7%

+2.0+1.0CLE SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL51.7%43.7%CLE NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CHC 5 · CLE 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0010020115
CLE000003036

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.7%

Close no-vig

47.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 98
    56
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 97
    56
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 96
    126
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    50
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    24
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    1611
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasCHC -121

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Chicago Cubs, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

CLE +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
CJ Kayfus

CJ Kayfus

LF

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC4-5
5
6
CLE6-4
CHC4-5·CLE6-4
CHC

CHC

4-5

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-33110020
SPRINT28.278
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000011
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-55122102
SPRINT27.662
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44110012
SPRINT25.716
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33000011
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44112102
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33111111
SPRINT28.992
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44010000
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
0-33000002
M. BallesterosM. BallesterosDH
0-11000001
Team7-34345753612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
5.0311140
B. BrownB. BrownRP
2.0222200
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
0.1333101
E. RobertsE. RobertsRP
0.2100000
Team8.0966441
CLE

CLE

6-4

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-55110001
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33100010
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000000
D. FryD. Fry★RF
1-11010010
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-33111001
SPRINT26.941
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-22100021
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
2-44022000
SPRINT26.530
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
2-44021000
SPRINT24.43
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-44000001
C. KayfusC. KayfusLF
2-22222100
Team9-3232696144
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. MessickP. Messick★SP
5.0211361
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.0222011
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.2100010
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.1111121
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0111220
Team9.07556123

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

5

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Apr 3CHCCHC1@CLECLE4
Apr 4CHCCHC0@CLECLE0
Apr 5CHCCHC1@CLECLE0
Apr 5CHCCHC5@CLECLE6today

Season series

CLE wins series 2-1

Apr 3CHCCHC1@CLECLE4
Apr 4CHCCHC0@CLECLE0
Apr 5CHCCHC1@CLECLE0
Apr 5CHCCHC5@CLECLE6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC-12155%
CLECLE+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 33pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CHCCHC
M. Shaw

M. Shaw

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
C. Kayfus

C. Kayfus

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CLE beat CHC 6-5. Kayfus's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Win probability

CLE vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 6th Inning · 3-0
+24pp→ 83% WP

Swanson · homered to left center (380 feet), Kelly scored.

CHCTop 8th Inning · 4-3
+27pp→ 73% WP

Happ · homered to right (382 feet).

CLEBottom 8th Inning · 4-4
+33pp→ 58% WP

Kayfus · homered to right (352 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0010020115
CLE00000303—6

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · CLE won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Shaw 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
3

Inn 6

Swanson 2

Kayfus 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
3

Inn 8

Happ 1

Kayfus 1

1

Inn 9

Happ 1

CHC
CLE

Play-by-play · 626 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  2. T9

    Kelly struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

    +15pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  5. T9

    Kingery stole second.

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  6. T9

    Kingery stole second.

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  11. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Carson Kelly

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  12. T9

    Kingery ran for Happ

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  13. T9

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  14. T9

    Happ singled to center, Hoerner scored, Bregman to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

    −6pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  20. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Ian Happ

    · ·

    CHC 5·CLE 6

  21. T9

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  22. T9

    Bregman walked, Hoerner to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

    −6pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  29. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Alex Bregman

    · ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

  30. T9

    ·

    CHC 4·CLE 6

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

5

Runs

6

7

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

17

TB

14

3

HR

1

6

BB

4

12

K

4

15

LOB

13

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 7·CHC -121/CLE +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CLE vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    54.6%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.2%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.3%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.