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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+11MIL
ARI

ARI

15-13

2
13
MIL

MIL

15-13

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
23,062 attended

Line movement

40 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIL no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%MIL NO-VIG %MODEL 57.6%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 10 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

ARI 2 · MIL 13 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0000200002
MIL0102280013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 28·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -136

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 13–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ildemaro Vargas

Ildemaro Vargas

1B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Sal Frelick

Sal Frelick

RF

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI15-13
2
13
MIL15-13
ARI15-13·MIL15-13
ARI

ARI

15-13

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-22010010
SPRINT26.941
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-33000000
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-33000002
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-44000002
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-22100021
SPRINT26.326
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
0-33100010
SPRINT29.597
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-11000010
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-33000000
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
1-33012002
SPRINT25.29
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-11000000
A. GarciaA. GarciaC
0-11000000
T. TawaT. TawaLF
1-22010001
SPRINT27.662
Team3-2828232058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
5.0655511
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
1.0000000
SPRINT25.29
A. HoffmannA. HoffmannRP
0.1887100
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.2000010
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0100000
Team8.0151312621
MIL

MIL

15-13

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-44111010
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-44222010
SPRINT24.96
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-33220010
T. BlackT. Black★DH
3-55133000
SPRINT2872
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-44112010
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
0-44100011
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
2-22321110
SPRINT28.790
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
2-55122000
SPRINT29.294
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
2-44122001
SPRINT28.790
L. RengifoL. Rengifo3B
0-11000000
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-11000000
Team15-3737131513162
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PatrickC. Patrick★RP
5.0122550
SS. DrohanRP
1.0000010
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
3.0200020
Team9.0322580

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • M. Kelly
    104 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      32%·88.0 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      24%·91.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      14%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.7 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      11%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Hoffmann
    38 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Clarke
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • CH
      33%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      75%·77.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      25%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. McCann
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • EP
      100%·30.8 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • C. Patrick
    98 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      37%·89.8 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SV
      18%·85.9 mph·13% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    35 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      34%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      26%·82.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Drohan
    10 pitches·60% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.8 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

15

2

Runs

13

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 28ARIARI2@MILMIL13today
Apr 29ARIARI6@MILMIL2
Apr 30ARIARI1@MILMIL13

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

Apr 28ARIARI2@MILMIL13today
Apr 29ARIARI6@MILMIL2
Apr 30ARIARI1@MILMIL13
Jul 4MILMIL@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 5MILMIL@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 5MILMIL@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+11347%
MILMIL-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 40 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

ARIARI
I. Vargas

I. Vargas

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

M. Kelly

M. Kelly

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 5 BB

MILMIL
S. Frelick

S. Frelick

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

C. Patrick

C. Patrick

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 1 H · 5 BB

How it ended

MIL beat ARI 13-2. MIL outscored the other side 8-0 in the 6th inning.

Win probability

MIL vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 75% WP

Frelick · homered to right center (396 feet).

MILBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+13pp→ 89% WP

Ortiz · singled to center, Lockridge scored and Frelick scored.

ARITop 5th Inning · 2-3
+13pp→ 34% WP

McCann · singled to left, Del Castillo scored and Fernandez scored, Arenado to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0000200002
MIL01022800—13

Period scoring

ARI won 0 · MIL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Frelick 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Ortiz 2

2
2

Inn 5

McCann 2

Black 2

0
8

Inn 6

Contreras 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ARI
MIL

Play-by-play · 602 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  2. T9

    Tawa struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  7. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Tim Tawa

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  8. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  9. T9

    Fernandez popped out to second.

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  13. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Jose Fernandez

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  14. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  15. T9

    Del Castillo flied out to left.

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  17. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  18. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  19. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  20. B8

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  21. B8

    Hamilton grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  22. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  23. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  24. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  25. B8

    James McCann pitches to David Hamilton

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  26. B8

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  27. B8

    Perkins grounded out to third.

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  29. B8

    James McCann pitches to Blake Perkins

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

  30. B8

    ·

    ARI 2·MIL 13

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

2

Runs

13

3

Hits

15

1

Errors

0

3

TB

20

0

HR

1

5

BB

6

8

K

2

15

LOB

16

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·ARI +113/MIL -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 30, 26sim 95
    291
    8(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    72
    5(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 94
    68
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    1410
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 94
    68
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 94
    62
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

MIL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    57.5%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.7%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.0%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.