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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9CHC
CHC

CHC

9-9

11
2
PHI

PHI

8-10

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
38,254 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

PHI no-vig %

55.9%

open 55.9%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL59.9%51.9%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 52.3%May 4, 10 AMMay 24, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 11 · PHI 2 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC00302410111
PHI1000000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+117

Close price

+117

Open no-vig

44.1%

Close no-vig

44.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1/VegasPHI -141

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 11–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHC +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Trea Turner

Trea Turner

SS

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC9-9
11
2
PHI8-10
CHC9-9·PHI8-10
CHC

CHC

9-9

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
3-55235100
SPRINT28.278
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44110013
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
2-44120011
SPRINT27.457
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000002
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-55000001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
3-55232100
SPRINT27.867
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
1-55110000
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT29.294
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
3-44332000
SPRINT28.992
Team15-404011159228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
6.03111111
B. BrownB. BrownRP
2.0000000
L. LittleL. LittleRP
1.0211011
Team9.05221122
PHI

PHI

8-10

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-22111111
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000003
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44111102
SPRINT2744
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT26.735
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT28.278
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-22000001
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-33000000
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33000001
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-33000001
J. CrawfordJ. CrawfordCF
0-11000000
SPRINT29.798
R. MarchanR. MarchanC
0-22000000
Team5-32322522112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
5.11298141
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
1.2311031
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
1.0000010
D. MooreD. MooreCF
1.0011100
Team9.0151110282

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    97 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      35%·92.0 mph·24% whiff
    • FS
      33%·83.7 mph·61% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.2 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      11%·90.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      1%·73.9 mph·— whiff
  • L. Little
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      74%·95.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      21%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Brown
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      29%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      24%·97.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      6%·90.3 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    98 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      33%·87.8 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      26%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      20%·98.1 mph·11% whiff
  • K. Backhus
    41 pitches·37% CSW
    • SI
      54%·91.2 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      27%·78.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      20%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Moore
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • EP
      77%·39.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      23%·65.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      64%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·86.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

5

11

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Apr 13CHCCHC7@PHIPHI13
Apr 14CHCCHC10@PHIPHI4
Apr 15CHCCHC11@PHIPHI2today

Season series

CHC lead series 2-1

Apr 13CHCCHC7@PHIPHI13
Apr 14CHCCHC10@PHIPHI4
Apr 15CHCCHC11@PHIPHI2today
Apr 20PHIPHI1@CHCCHC5
Apr 21PHIPHI4@CHCCHC7
Apr 22PHIPHI2@CHCCHC7
Apr 23PHIPHI7@CHCCHC8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+11746%
PHIPHI-14159%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 3rd Inning

CHCCHC
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
T. Turner

T. Turner

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 12 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat PHI 11-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 72% WP

Turner · homered to center (423 feet).

CHCTop 3rd Inning · 3-1
+15pp→ 64% WP

Suzuki · struck out swinging.

CHCTop 5th Inning · 5-1
+13pp→ 89% WP

Hoerner · homered to center (400 feet), Shaw scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC00302410111
PHI1000000012

Period scoring

CHC won 4 · PHI won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Turner 1

0
0

Inn 2

3
0

Inn 3

Suzuki 2

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Hoerner 2

4
0

Inn 6

Shaw 2

1
0

Inn 7

Swanson 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Swanson 1

Harper 1

CHC
PHI

Play-by-play · 581 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  3. B9

    Marchán grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  7. B9

    Luke Little pitches to Rafael Marchan

    · ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  8. B9

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  9. B9

    Sosa singled to center.

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  13. B9

    Luke Little pitches to Edmundo Sosa

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  14. B9

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  15. B9

    García struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  23. B9

    Luke Little pitches to Adolis Garcia

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  24. B9

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  25. B9

    Harper homered to left center (406 feet).

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

  30. B9

    Luke Little pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    CHC 11·PHI 2

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

11

Runs

2

15

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

24

TB

12

2

HR

2

2

BB

1

8

K

12

10

LOB

7

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 9·CHC +117/PHI -141

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Justin CrawfordPHI · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PHI vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    53.6%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.6%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.3%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 96
    179
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 96
    58
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 96
    173
    5(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    1610
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 96
    126
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 95
    58
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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