MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SD

COL

6-9

9-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Petco Park · San Diego, California

42,318 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SD no-vig %

60.6%

open 60.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.8%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
69.5%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.5%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
69.1%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-173

Close price

-173

Open no-vig

60.6%

Close no-vig

60.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SD vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael KingSD
5.4± 2.7low
Griffin CanningSD
4.5± 2.4low
Yu DarvishSD
4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.1high
Willi CastroCOL
1.1± 0.9high
Ty FranceSD
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Ty FranceSD
1.9± 1.9high
Ezequiel TovarCOL
1.7± 2.5high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 0.9high
Ezequiel TovarCOL
0.6± 1.3high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.8± 3.8low
Griffin CanningSD
3.7± 2.6low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.4± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

COL 5 · SD 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +20pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5
SD	0	0	3	3	0	3	0	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
E. Julien★2B	2-3	3	2	2	1	1	2	1	17.0
SPRINT26.225
E. Tovar★SS	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.8
SPRINT27.867
M. MoniakMulti-HR game★LF	3-4	4	2	3	4	2	0	1	21.3
SPRINT2872
H. Goodman★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	5.5
T. Johnston★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.1
J. Beck★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.0
B. Sullivan★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.2
SPRINT2872
K. Karros★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	2.8
J. McCarthy★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4.2
W. Castro2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.2
T. Rumfield1B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.1
SPRINT24.85
T. FreemanRF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.4
Team	9-34	34	5	9	5	3	4	10	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

E. Julien★2B

2-3

17.0

E. Tovar★SS

1-5

6.8

M. Moniak★LF

3-4

21.3

H. Goodman★C

0-4

5.5

T. Johnston★RF

0-4

3.1

J. Beck★LF

0-3

2.0

B. Sullivan★C

1-4

0.2

K. Karros★3B

0-2

2.8

J. McCarthy★CF

0-1

4.2

W. Castro2B

0-1

0.2

T. Rumfield1B

1-1

0.1

T. FreemanRF

1-2

0.4

Team

9-34

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
R. Feltner★SP	4.0	7	6	6	3	4	2	57.8
Z. AgnosRP	1.1	1	3	2	3	0	0	3.1
B. BernardinoRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	1.8
M. LorenzenSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.9
J. HergetRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.9
Team	8.0	10	9	8	7	5	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

R. Feltner★SP

4.0

57.8

Z. AgnosRP

1.1

3.1

B. BernardinoRP

0.2

1.8

M. LorenzenSP

1.0

1.9

J. HergetRP

1.0

0.9

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
R. Laureano★LF	2-3	3	3	2	3	1	2	0	47.5
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	3-4	4	0	3	1	0	1	1	6.1
SPRINT28.483
J. Merrill★CF	1-4	4	1	1	3	0	1	1	18.0
SPRINT28.688
M. Machado★3B	1-5	5	1	1	2	1	0	0	15.5
SPRINT24.32
N. Castellanos★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	1.2
G. Sheets★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	6.8
M. Andujar★DH	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	37.0
SPRINT26.530
F. Fermin★C	0-2	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	33.6
J. Cronenworth★2B	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1.0

Team	10-32	32	9	10	9	2	7	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player