
LAA
9-9

NYY
9-8
Line movement
20 snapshots
NYY spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 9.5
open O/U 9.5
NYY no-vig %
60.8%
open 60.8%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
NYY
.708
OPS
.717
▶.763
.319
OBP
.319
▶.330
4.49
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.11
4.62
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.32
1.43
WHIP
1.31
▶1.19
9.0
K / 9
8.5
8.7
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAA wins
LAA 7 · NYY 1 (by 6)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked NYY +16pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-175
Close price
-175
Open no-vig
60.8%
Close no-vig
60.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Angels went into New York Yankees and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
LAA +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LAA · top performer

Oswald Peraza
2B
3-3
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
NYY · top performer

Ryan McMahon
3B
2-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .233 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| .222 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| .315 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| .231 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| .300 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| .216 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .184 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| .267 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| .118 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .316 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 37 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 12 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 99 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 144 |
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .200 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .234 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .300 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .293 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .154 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .063 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .178 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .179 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .128 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .177 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .362 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 31 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 94 | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 | |
| 2.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 44 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 180 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantLAA
NYY
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
12
Hits
5
7
Runs
1
0
Errors
0
Current series
Series tied 2-2
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYY -1.5
Total
9.5
High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 20 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
9.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 1st Inning
O. Peraza
2BBatter of the gamePerfect day
3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS
R. Detmers
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H
R. McMahon
3BBatter of the game
1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS
R. Weathers
SPStarting pitcher10-K game
5.0 IP · 10 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
How it ended
LAA beat NYY 7-1.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
NYY vs LAA
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactTrout · homered to center (432 feet).
Peraza · homered to left (396 feet).
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Period scoring
LAA won 3 · NYY won 0
Inn 1
Trout 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Peraza 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Moncada 2
Inn 7
Inn 8
Moncada 1
Rice 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 599 plays
End of the 9th inning
LAA 7·NYY 1
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Grisham struck out swinging.
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Trent Grisham
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Stanton struck out swinging.
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Giancarlo Stanton
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Rosario grounded out to shortstop.
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
−0.5pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Amed Rosario
· ·
LAA 7·NYY 1
·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Judge doubled to left.
·
LAA 7·NYY 1
+0.5pp
Pitch 12 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAA 7·NYY 1
Team stats
LAA
Away
Stat
NYY
Home
7
Runs
1
12
Hits
5
0
Errors
0
27
TB
7
5
HR
0
6
BB
0
12
K
12
24
LOB
9
Betting line
NYY -1.5·O/U 9.5·LAA +144/NYY -175
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 72 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
67.5%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
65.6%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.2%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.25 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.