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FINAL+4KC
MIN

MIN

1-4

9
13
KC

KC

3-2

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
10,870 attended

Line movement

6 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

KC no-vig %

49.4%

open 49.4%

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL53.4%45.4%KC NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

MIN 9 · KC 13 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0000103239
KC0311071013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-107

Close price

-107

Open no-vig

49.4%

Close no-vig

49.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1/VegasMIN -113

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Minnesota Twins, 13–9.

KC +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 14.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Tristan Gray

Tristan Gray

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Kyle Isbel

Kyle Isbel

CF

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN1-4
9
13
KC3-2
MIN1-4·KC3-2
MIN

MIN

1-4

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-33012020
SPRINT27.867
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-44000002
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-55012001
SPRINT28.688
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-55110003
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-33210022
SPRINT26.326
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-33313121
SPRINT25.18
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-44011010
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-33210000
SPRINT27.251
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44111011
J. OutmanJ. OutmanCF
0-22000001
T. GrayT. Gray3B
1-11010010
Team9-37379991911
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
4.0955030
C. LawerysonC. LawerysonRP
1.1243220
Z. KentZ. KentRP
1.2341322
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0100010
Team8.015139582
KC

KC

3-2

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-22113010
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33011000
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44211012
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44110011
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-55010003
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
2-55125101
SPRINT27.765
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
3-44330000
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-33211011
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
4-44342100
SPRINT26.941
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
0-11000000
Team15-3535131513258
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
5.0411150
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0000020
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
1.0131320
A. LangeA. LangeRP
0.1122310
S. CruzS. CruzRP
0.2000010
B. FalterB. FalterRP
0.1333201
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
0.2000000
Team9.09979111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    77 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      55%·92.2 mph·22% whiff
    • FS
      13%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      8%·78.3 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      8%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Kent
    47 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      47%·91.2 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      40%·86.4 mph·71% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·92.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Laweryson
    36 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      67%·92.1 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      19%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Banda
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      33%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·83.0 mph·50% whiff

KC

  • N. Cameron
    86 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      38%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·88.0 mph·57% whiff
    • CH
      19%·81.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      3%·91.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      1%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    37 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      16%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      11%·79.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Lange
    34 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      32%·86.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      26%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Falter
    20 pitches·5% CSW
    • FF
      75%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·77.7 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      5%·82.8 mph·— whiff
  • N. Mears
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·84.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • S. Cruz
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FC
      43%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      43%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·81.9 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

15

9

Runs

13

1

Errors

1

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Mar 30MINMIN1@KCKC3
Apr 1MINMIN9@KCKC13today
Apr 2MINMIN5@KCKC1

Season series

KC leads series 2-0

Mar 30MINMIN1@KCKC3
Apr 1MINMIN9@KCKC13today
Apr 2MINMIN5@KCKC1
Jun 4KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jun 6KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jun 6KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jun 7KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jul 28KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jul 29KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jul 30KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Aug 4MINMIN@KCKCupcoming
Aug 5MINMIN@KCKCupcoming
Aug 6MINMIN@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN-11353%
KCKC-10752%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

MINMIN
T. Gray

T. Gray

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 9 H

KCKC
K. Isbel

K. Isbel

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat MIN 13-9.

Win probability

KC vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 65% WP

Collins · doubled to right, Caglianone scored.

KCTop 4th Inning · 0-4
+6pp→ 90% WP

Keaschall · struck out looking.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0000103239
KC03110710—13

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · KC won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Collins 1

0
1

Inn 3

India 1

0
1

Inn 4

Garcia 1

1
0

Inn 5

Lee 1

0
7

Inn 6

India 4

3
1

Inn 7

Keaschall 2

Isbel 1

2
0

Inn 8

Caratini 1

3

Inn 9

Bell 3

MIN
KC

Play-by-play · 709 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  2. T9

    Outman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Gray out at second.

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  4. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to James Outman

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  5. T9

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  6. T9

    Martin popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

    +3pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  13. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Austin Martin

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  14. T9

    Erceg relieved Falter

    ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  15. T9

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  16. T9

    Lee lined out to left.

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

    +3pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  20. T9

    Bailey Falter pitches to Brooks Lee

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  21. T9

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  22. T9

    Gray singled to right, Caratini to second.

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

    −4pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  26. T9

    Bailey Falter pitches to Tristan Gray

    · ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  27. T9

    ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  28. T9

    Caratini walked.

    ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

    −2pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 9·KC 13

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

KC

Home

9

Runs

13

9

Hits

15

1

Errors

1

15

TB

25

1

HR

2

9

BB

5

11

K

8

29

LOB

19

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 8·MIN -113/KC -107

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 13, 26sim 93
    205
    23(H)16
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 93
    47
    29(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 90
    39
    18(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 89
    49
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 89
    411
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 89
    208
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

KC vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.2%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    61.9%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.9%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.9%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.