
MIN
1-4

KC
3-2
Line movement
6 snapshots
KC spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
KC no-vig %
49.4%
open 49.4%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
KC wins
MIN 9 · KC 13 (by 4)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked KC +12pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| KC | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-107
Close price
-107
Open no-vig
49.4%
Close no-vig
49.4%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Recap · MLB
ansas City Royals held off Minnesota Twins, 13–9.
KC +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 14.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer

Tristan Gray
3B
1-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
KC · top performer

Kyle Isbel
CF
4-4
AB-H
3
R
2
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


MIN
1-4
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.867 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
SPRINT26.326 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.18 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9-37 | 37 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 11 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.0 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 2 |
KC
3-2
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.765 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT25.411 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.765 | ||||||||
| 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 15-35 | 35 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 1 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantMIN
KC
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
9
Hits
15
9
Runs
13
1
Errors
1
Current series
KC wins series 2-1
Season series
KC leads series 2-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 2nd Inning
T. Gray
3BBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS
J. Ryan
SPStarting pitcher
4.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 9 H
K. Isbel
CFBatter of the gamePerfect day
4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS
N. Cameron
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB
How it ended
KC beat MIN 13-9.
Win probability
KC vs MIN
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCollins · doubled to right, Caglianone scored.
Keaschall · struck out looking.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| KC | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | — | 13 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · KC won 4
Inn 1
Inn 2
Collins 1
Inn 3
India 1
Inn 4
Garcia 1
Inn 5
Lee 1
Inn 6
India 4
Inn 7
Keaschall 2
Isbel 1
Inn 8
Caratini 1
Inn 9
Bell 3
Play-by-play · 709 plays
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Outman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Gray out at second.
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
+1pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Lucas Erceg pitches to James Outman
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Martin popped out to shortstop.
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
+3pp
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Pitch 5 : Ball 2
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Lucas Erceg pitches to Austin Martin
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Erceg relieved Falter
·
MIN 9·KC 13
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Lee lined out to left.
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
+3pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Bailey Falter pitches to Brooks Lee
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Gray singled to right, Caratini to second.
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
−4pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
Bailey Falter pitches to Tristan Gray
· ·
MIN 9·KC 13
·
MIN 9·KC 13
Caratini walked.
·
MIN 9·KC 13
−2pp
Pitch 5 : Ball 4
·
MIN 9·KC 13
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking
·
MIN 9·KC 13
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
KC
Home
9
Runs
13
9
Hits
15
1
Errors
1
15
TB
25
1
HR
2
9
BB
5
11
K
8
29
LOB
19
Betting line
MIN -1.5·O/U 8·MIN -113/KC -107
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 15 players in cohortHistorical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 82 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.2%
ensemble · KC favored
Elo Static
61.9%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.9%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.9%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.81 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.