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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3ATH
ATH

ATH

1-4

5
2
ATL

ATL

3-2

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
30,799 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL62.3%54.3%ATL NO-VIG %MODEL 56.0%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 5 · ATL 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0301100005
ATL1000100002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    261
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    181
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    111
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    65
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 95
    74
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 95
    72
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Mar 31·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -156

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 5–2.

ATH +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Shea Langeliers

Shea Langeliers

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH1-4
5
2
ATL3-2
ATH1-4·ATL3-2
ATH

ATH

1-4

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
2-44022000
SPRINT27.148
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44111102
SPRINT28.586
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-44000003
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-44010003
SPRINT27.148
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-44000001
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33210011
SPRINT27.969
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
2-44122000
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-33100010
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
1-33010011
Team8-33335851311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
5.0422131
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0000200
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0000120
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0000000
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0200010
Team9.0622461
ATL

ATL

3-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-44001003
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44111110
SPRINT26.632
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-33000010
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-33000010
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000000
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-44010001
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT25.716
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT26.428
Team6-3333262146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SuarezJ. Suarez★RP
3.2544360
J. PayampsJ. PayampsRP
1.0111021
M. PerezM. PerezSP
4.1200030
Team9.08553111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • A. Civale
    87 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      33%·87.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      28%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·76.9 mph·22% whiff
    • FS
      8%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      6%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·81.7 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Sterner
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      32%·87.7 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      32%·81.3 mph·67% whiff
  • H. Harris
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·74.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      46%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·74.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      23%·85.3 mph·67% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • CU
      50%·76.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.8 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • J. Suarez
    66 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.5 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      30%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·83.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Perez
    47 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      38%·83.7 mph·36% whiff
    • SI
      30%·89.9 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      23%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Payamps
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      50%·84.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      43%·94.9 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

5

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Mar 30ATHATH0@ATLATL4
Mar 31ATHATH5@ATLATL2today
Apr 1ATHATH1@ATLATL5

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 30ATHATH0@ATLATL4
Mar 31ATHATH5@ATLATL2today
Apr 1ATHATH1@ATLATL5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+12944%
ATLATL-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 2nd Inning

ATHATH
S. Langeliers

S. Langeliers

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

J. Suarez

J. Suarez

RP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATH beat ATL 5-2. Wilson's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 36% WP

Ibáñez singled to left, Muncy scored.

ATHTop 2nd Inning · 3-1
+19pp→ 62% WP

Wilson · hit a ground rule double, Ibáñez scored and Butler scored, Clarke to third.

ATLBottom 7th Inning · 5-2
+10pp→ 29% WP

Dub · ón grounded into fielder's choice to third, Smith safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Muncy.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0301100005
ATL1000100002

Period scoring

ATH won 2 · ATL won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Baldwin 1

3
0

Inn 2

Wilson 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

Langeliers 1

Acu 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ATH
ATL

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  3. B9

    Baldwin popped out to second.

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  6. B9

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Drake Baldwin

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  7. B9

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  8. B9

    Acuña Jr. struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

    −6pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  13. B9

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Ronald Acuna Jr.

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  14. B9

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  15. B9

    Dubón singled to center, Harris II to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

    +7pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  20. B9

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  21. B9

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  22. B9

    Smith flied out to left.

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

    −4pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  24. B9

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Dominic Smith

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  25. B9

    ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  26. B9

    Harris II singled to center.

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

    +5pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  29. B9

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Michael Harris II

    · ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

  30. B9

    Leiter Jr. relieved Barlow

    ·

    ATH 5·ATL 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

5

Runs

2

8

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

13

TB

9

1

HR

1

3

BB

4

11

K

6

9

LOB

20

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 9·ATH +129/ATL -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ATL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    2.3± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.6%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.1%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586