• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6WSH
WSH

WSH

1-0

10
4
CHC

CHC

0-1

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
39,712 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

CHC no-vig %

64.5%

open 64.5%

-1.0-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL68.5%60.5%CHC NO-VIG %MODEL 67.0%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 10 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 10 · CHC 4 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH01060100210
CHC0021001004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 95
    2013
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    208
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 94
    202
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 94
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    42
    8(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 93
    206
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Mar 26·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasCHC -207

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 10–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

WSH +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Joey Wiemer

Joey Wiemer

RF

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH1-0
10
4
CHC0-1
WSH1-0·CHC0-1
WSH

WSH

1-0

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-55000004
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
2-33120000
B. HouseB. House★3B
2-55222102
SPRINT2872
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-55111002
SPRINT29.395
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
3-33231110
SPRINT28.891
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44012001
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-22101011
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
1-44110001
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-44112101
SPRINT29.496
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.1B
0-22100000
Team11-3737101193212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
3.2332350
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0100100
B. LordB. LordRP
2.1411010
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000210
C. PerezC. PerezRP
1.0000020
Team9.0843690
CHC

CHC

0-1

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
3-44231010
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44010011
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-55010003
SPRINT27.662
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
2-55022002
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-44100001
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-33010010
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-33000011
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-22101020
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33000000
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
0-11000001
Team8-3434484069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
3.2666171
B. BrownB. BrownRP
3.1322131
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.0100000
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0120021
Team9.0111082123

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    75 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.5 mph·14% whiff
    • KC
      28%·84.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.6 mph·67% whiff
  • B. Lord
    47 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      28%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      28%·94.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      11%·83.0 mph·— whiff
  • P. Poulin
    24 pitches·13% CSW
    • ST
      33%·78.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      29%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·88.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Beeter
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      54%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      46%·96.2 mph·20% whiff
  • C. Perez
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      17%·85.9 mph·100% whiff

CHC

  • M. Boyd
    63 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.3 mph·48% whiff
    • CH
      13%·79.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      13%·84.6 mph·57% whiff
    • CU
      8%·74.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Brown
    49 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.2 mph·15% whiff
    • KC
      33%·86.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·89.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Webb
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      47%·85.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      47%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·81.7 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      55%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·78.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

8

10

Runs

4

2

Errors

1

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Mar 26WSHWSH10@CHCCHC4today
Mar 28WSHWSH2@CHCCHC10
Mar 29WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Mar 26WSHWSH10@CHCCHC4today
Mar 28WSHWSH2@CHCCHC10
Mar 29WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3
Aug 11CHCCHC@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 12CHCCHC@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 13CHCCHC@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+16937%
CHCCHC-20767%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 4th Inning

WSHWSH
J. Wiemer

J. Wiemer

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

CHCCHC
M. Busch

M. Busch

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.550 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

WSH beat CHC 10-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 44% WP

Wiemer · homered to left (398 feet).

WSHTop 4th Inning · 4-2
+11pp→ 68% WP

Abrams · singled to right, House scored and Lile scored, Abrams thrown out at second, Wiemer to third.

WSHTop 4th Inning · 7-2
+16pp→ 88% WP

Young · homered to right (380 feet), Ruiz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH01060100210
CHC0021001004

Period scoring

WSH won 4 · CHC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Wiemer 1

0
2

Inn 3

Busch 1

6
1

Inn 4

Abrams 2

Swanson 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Young 1

0
1

Inn 7

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

House 2

WSH
CHC

Play-by-play · 617 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  2. B9

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  3. B9

    Crow-Armstrong struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  8. B9

    Cionel Perez pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  9. B9

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  10. B9

    Happ flied out to left.

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  15. B9

    Cionel Perez pitches to Ian Happ

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  16. B9

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  17. B9

    Bregman struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  22. B9

    Cionel Perez pitches to Alex Bregman

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  23. B9

    Pérez relieved Beeter

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  26. T9

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  27. T9

    Lile struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 10·CHC 4

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

10

Runs

4

11

Hits

8

2

Errors

1

21

TB

10

3

HR

0

2

BB

6

12

K

9

8

LOB

26

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 7·WSH +169/CHC -207

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

CHC vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    64.5%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.7%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.3%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.