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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7MIA
CHW

CHW

1-4

2
9
MIA

MIA

4-1

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
6,667 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIA no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL62.3%54.3%MIA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

CHW 2 · MIA 9 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0020000002
MIA000400239

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Mar 31·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1/VegasMIA -156

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Chicago White Sox, 9–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Edgar Quero

Edgar Quero

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Griffin Conine

Griffin Conine

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW1-4
2
9
MIA4-1
CHW1-4·MIA4-1
CHW

CHW

1-4

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44000002
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT27.148
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44011002
SPRINT26.632
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000002
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT28.381
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
0-44000001
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-33000012
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-22110010
SPRINT24.12
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT29.597
Team5-32322520213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. FeddeE. Fedde★SP
5.0643140
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.2121110
J. PaezJ. PaezSP
1.1233101
Team8.0997351
MIA

MIA

4-1

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-33001000
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44110001
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-33212010
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44110001
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-22112011
SPRINT28.586
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-33111010
SPRINT28.483
G. ConineG. Conine★LF
2-44222101
SPRINT27.457
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-33001001
Team9-3030999135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
4.1522150
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.0000020
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.2000110
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000020
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000030
Team9.05222130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • E. Fedde
    80 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      29%·90.1 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      26%·82.2 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.1 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      1%·94.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Paez
    28 pitches·14% CSW
    • FC
      29%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hudson
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      48%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      4%·84.8 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • J. Junk
    79 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      32%·88.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      24%·95.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      18%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      16%·81.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bender
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      48%·82.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      53%·93.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      24%·97.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      18%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.3 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      53%·96.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      27%·81.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      20%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Nardi
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      64%·83.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      14%·90.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

2

Runs

9

3

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Mar 30CHWCHW9@MIAMIA4
Mar 31CHWCHW2@MIAMIA9today
Apr 1CHWCHW0@MIAMIA10

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 30CHWCHW9@MIAMIA4
Mar 31CHWCHW2@MIAMIA9today
Apr 1CHWCHW0@MIAMIA10

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+12944%
MIAMIA-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 3rd Inning

CHWCHW
E. Quero

E. Quero

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

E. Fedde

E. Fedde

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
G. Conine

G. Conine

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat CHW 9-2.

Win probability

MIA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+16pp→ 53% WP

Murakami · singled to center, Quero scored, Acuña to third.

MIABottom 4th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 63% WP

Ram · írez doubled to center, Edwards to third.

MIABottom 4th Inning · 2-3
+10pp→ 82% WP

Caissie · singled to center, Hicks scored on error, Caissie safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Acuña.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0020000002
MIA00040023—9

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · MIA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Murakami 1

0
4

Inn 4

Hicks 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Pauley 1

0
3

Inn 8

Conine 2

0

Inn 9

CHW
MIA

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  2. T9

    Peters struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  9. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Tristan Peters

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  10. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  11. T9

    Hays struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  15. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Austin Hays

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  16. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  17. T9

    Vargas struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  24. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  25. T9

    Fairbanks relieved Faucher

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  28. B8

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  29. B8

    Pauley fouled out to right.

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 2·MIA 9

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

2

Runs

9

5

Hits

9

3

Errors

0

6

TB

14

0

HR

1

2

BB

3

13

K

5

12

LOB

7

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8·CHW +129/MIA -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    61.0%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.9%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    46
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    40
    28(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    47
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    49
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    46
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 94
    310
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs