Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 24, 2026

FINAL+2CLE

CLE

15-12

TOR

10-15

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,671 attended

Line movement

42 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

47.7%

open 47.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
52.5%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.9%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.7%

Close no-vig

47.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TOR vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.8low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.8± 2.5medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.1± 2.1medium

Hits

Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 1.1high
George SpringerTOR
1.1± 0.8high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Travis BazzanaCLE
2.1± 3.0high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.2high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.8± 1.0high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.7± 0.7high
Travis BazzanaCLE
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
2.8± 2.7medium
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
2.8± 3.3low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 2.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

TOR

.682

OPS

.718

▶

.706

.313

OBP

.319

.313

3.99

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.10

3.82

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.10

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 8 · TOR 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	5	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	8
TOR	2	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. SchneemannCF	.323	4	1	2	1	1	1	2
C. DeLauterRF	.224	4	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. Ramirez3B	.235	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.182	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.213	4	2	1	0	0	1	2
G. ValeraLF	.233	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.284	4	2	2	4	2	0	2
B. NaylorC	.138	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.280	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
S. KwanCF	.227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	8	10	8	3	4	8

Player

.323

.224

.235

.182

.213

.233

.284

.138

.280

.227

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP	6.0	7	6	6	2	4	96
H. GaddisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
C. SmithRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	16
Team	9.0	9	6	6	2	5	133

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

133

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LukesRF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.317	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.323	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.270	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
L. Sosa2B	.273	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
D. VarshoCF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.222	3	2	2	1	1	1	1
A. GimenezSS	.289	4	0	3	2	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.162	3	2	0	0	0	1	1
M. StrawRF	.313	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. JimenezDH	.391	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	9	6	2	2	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ScherzerSP	2.1	6	7	7	3	0	82
J. MantiplyRP	1.2	2	0	0	0	1	19
S. MilesRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	28
T. NanceRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
B. FisherRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
Team	9.0	10	8	8	4	8	169

Team

CLE

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TOR vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.