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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2LAA
LAA

LAA

3-3

2
0
CHC

CHC

2-3

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
26,288 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

CHC no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 7.0O/U 6.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%CHC NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 2 · CHC 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000020002
CHC0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 94
    72
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 93
    91
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 93
    202
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 92
    181
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 92
    211
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Mar 31·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1/VegasCHC -143

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 2–0.

LAA +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Oswald Peraza

Oswald Peraza

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA3-3
2
0
CHC2-3
LAA3-3·CHC2-3
LAA

LAA

3-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000012
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-33000021
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-55000000
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
0-33100012
SPRINT2622
J. CandelarioJ. Candelario★3B
1-44110002
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.867
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-33000011
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-33012010
SPRINT27.251
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
2-33020010
SPRINT28.278
Team5-3232252079
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
6.0200240
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.0100110
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.1100020
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
0.2000110
Team9.0400480
CHC

CHC

2-3

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33000000
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000000
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-22000021
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-33000002
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.278
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000012
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-22010011
SPRINT24.53
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33000000
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
1-33010000
SPRINT257
C. KellyC. KellyC
1-11010000
SPRINT25.716
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
0-11000001
Team4-2929040048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TaillonJ. Taillon★SP
4.2200430
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
0.1000000
P. MatonP. MatonRP
0.2222210
B. BrownB. BrownRP
3.1100150
Team9.0522790

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • J. Soriano
    90 pitches·33% CSW
    • KC
      32%·84.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      23%·97.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      16%·91.8 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      7%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.2 mph·13% whiff
    • KC
      25%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Silseth
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FS
      43%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      36%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Romano
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      50%·83.8 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    85 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      29%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·90.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      12%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·90.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      7%·78.4 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Brown
    50 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.3 mph·36% whiff
    • KC
      32%·86.8 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      24%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      4%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      46%·75.3 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      39%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      4%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      100%·87.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

4

2

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Mar 30LAALAA2@CHCCHC7
Mar 31LAALAA2@CHCCHC0today
Apr 1LAALAA2@CHCCHC6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 30LAALAA2@CHCCHC7
Mar 31LAALAA2@CHCCHC0today
Apr 1LAALAA2@CHCCHC6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+11946%
CHCCHC-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 6th Inning

LAALAA
O. Peraza

O. Peraza

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
C. Kelly

C. Kelly

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAA beat CHC 2-0. O'Hoppe's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+15pp→ 66% WP

Ballesteros · singled to left.

LAATop 6th Inning · 0-0
+16pp→ 63% WP

Candelario · doubled to right, Soler to third.

LAATop 6th Inning · 2-0
+28pp→ 71% WP

O'Hoppe · reached on infield single to third, Soler scored and Candelario scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000020002
CHC0000000000

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · CHC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

O'Hoppe 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

LAA
CHC

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  3. B9

    Conforto struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  7. B9

    Swanson to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  8. B9

    Swanson to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  10. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Michael Conforto

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  11. B9

    Conforto hit for Kingery

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  12. B9

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  13. B9

    Swanson walked.

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

    +3pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  19. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  20. B9

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  21. B9

    Hoerner lined out to center.

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

    −3pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  25. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  26. B9

    Romano relieved Pomeranz

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  27. B9

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  28. B9

    Crow-Armstrong struck out bunting foul.

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

    −4pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Bunted Foul

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 0

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

2

Runs

0

5

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

7

TB

4

0

HR

0

7

BB

4

9

K

8

24

LOB

14

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 6.5·LAA +119/CHC -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CHC vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    63.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.0%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.3%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278