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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5MIL
CHW

CHW

0-2

1
6
MIL

MIL

2-0

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
36,030 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIL no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL67.6%59.6%MIL NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 10 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CHW 1 · MIL 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0001000001
MIL310001106

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-199

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.6%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Mar 28·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0/VegasMIL -199

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Chicago White Sox, 6–1.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW0-2
1
6
MIL2-0
CHW0-2·MIL2-0
CHW

CHW

0-2

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT2744
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-33010011
SPRINT26.326
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-22010000
SPRINT26.632
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-33111111
SPRINT27.148
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-44000002
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
1-22010001
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-33000012
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
0-33000002
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-44000000
A. HaysA. HaysLF
1-22010000
SPRINT27.354
M. VargasM. Vargas3B
0-11000011
E. QueroE. QueroC
0-11000001
Team7-32321711411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
4.0743150
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
1.0000110
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0211110
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
0.2211220
J. PaezJ. PaezSP
0.1000000
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0100000
Team8.01265590
MIL

MIL

2-0

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
3-55230000
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44000010
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
3-55131002
SPRINT27.148
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-55110002
SPRINT2744
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
2-44122011
SPRINT29.798
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-44000002
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
2-44021001
SPRINT28.790
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-22100020
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-33011011
Team12-36366125059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PatrickC. Patrick★RP
4.1511141
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.2000240
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0200000
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000020
D. HallD. HallRP
1.0000110
Team9.07114111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Burke
    91 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      46%·93.6 mph·8% whiff
    • KC
      19%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·89.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hudson
    33 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      36%·90.5 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      36%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      21%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      42%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      8%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      40%·94.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      40%·90.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      7%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·97.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      7%·81.7 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      31%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Paez
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      100%·91.2 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • C. Patrick
    74 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      39%·88.1 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      26%·93.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SV
      8%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      3%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    33 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      55%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·82.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      12%·90.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      12%·84.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      3%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Hall
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      76%·96.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      12%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • A. Uribe
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      50%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

12

1

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

Mar 26CHWCHW2@MILMIL14
Mar 28CHWCHW1@MILMIL6today
Mar 29CHWCHW7@MILMIL9

Season series

MIL leads series 2-0

Mar 26CHWCHW2@MILMIL14
Mar 28CHWCHW1@MILMIL6today
Mar 29CHWCHW7@MILMIL9

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+16338%
MILMIL-19967%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 5pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHWCHW
M. Murakami

M. Murakami

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 2 R · 1.200 OPS

C. Patrick

C. Patrick

RP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIL beat CHW 6-1.

Win probability

MIL vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0001000001
MIL31000110—6

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · MIL won 4

0
3

Inn 1

Mitchell 2

0
1

Inn 2

Yelich 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Murakami 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Lockridge 1

0
1

Inn 7

Ortiz 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHW
MIL

Play-by-play · 629 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  2. T9

    Acuña grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Pereira out at second.

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

    +0.6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  9. T9

    DL Hall pitches to Luisangel Acuna

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  10. T9

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  11. T9

    Quero struck out looking.

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

    +0.7pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  18. T9

    DL Hall pitches to Edgar Quero

    · ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  19. T9

    Quero hit for McGuire

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  20. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  21. T9

    Pereira walked.

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

    −0.6pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  28. T9

    DL Hall pitches to Everson Pereira

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  29. T9

    Hall relieved Uribe

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 6

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 1·MIL 6

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

1

Runs

6

7

Hits

12

1

Errors

0

13

TB

14

1

HR

0

4

BB

5

11

K

9

14

LOB

17

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·CHW +163/MIL -199

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    203
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 93
    37
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 93
    206
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 93
    207
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 91
    34
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 89
    202
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

MIL vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    66.3%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.9%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.4%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Joey OrtizMIL · SS
    SPRINT28.790
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586