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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2KC
CHW

CHW

5-10

0
2
KC

KC

7-8

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
16,214 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

63.1%

open 63.1%

-1.0-2.0KC SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL67.1%59.1%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 62.0%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CHW 0 · KC 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
KC100000012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+159

Close price

+159

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasKC -194

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Chicago White Sox, 2–0.

KC -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Lenyn Sosa

Lenyn Sosa

2B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW5-10
0
2
KC7-8
CHW5-10·KC7-8
CHW

CHW

5-10

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44000002
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-33000012
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT26.632
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000000
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
D. HarrisD. Harris★LF
0-33000000
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-33000001
T. MurrayT. Murray★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
1-33010001
Team4-3030040018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. FeddeE. Fedde★SP
5.0311141
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.0000010
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.0111010
Team8.0422161
KC

KC

7-8

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44221100
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-33001001
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44010002
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-33000002
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-11000010
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-33000000
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-22010001
SPRINT26.838
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22000000
L. ThomasL. ThomasCF
0-11000000
Team4-2727242116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
8.0400170
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0000010
Team9.0400180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • E. Fedde
    85 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      39%·81.9 mph·37% whiff
    • FC
      27%·89.4 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SV
      39%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      35%·94.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      50%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      44%·100.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·89.4 mph·100% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    88 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      34%·92.8 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      27%·78.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.9 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      11%·87.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      5%·74.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      5%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      42%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      42%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 9CHWCHW2@KCKC0
Apr 10CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 11CHWCHW0@KCKC2today
Apr 12CHWCHW6@KCKC5

Season series

KC leads series 2-1

Apr 9CHWCHW2@KCKC0
Apr 10CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 11CHWCHW0@KCKC2today
Apr 12CHWCHW6@KCKC5
May 12KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 13KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 14KCKC2@CHWCHW6
Jun 26KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 27KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 28KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 22CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming
Sep 23CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming
Sep 24CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+15939%
KCKC-19466%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 7pp · Top 7th Inning

CHWCHW
L. Sosa

L. Sosa

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

E. Fedde

E. Fedde

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat CHW 2-0.

Win probability

KC vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 83% WP

Garcia · homered to left center (412 feet).

CHWTop 7th Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 27% WP

Sosa · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
KC10000001—2

Period scoring

CHW won 0 · KC won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Garcia 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Pasquantino 1

0

Inn 9

CHW
KC

Play-by-play · 448 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  2. T9

    Montgomery flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  5. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  6. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  7. T9

    Benintendi struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

    +2pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  14. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  15. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  16. T9

    Murakami grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

    +3pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  21. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Munetaka Murakami

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  22. T9

    Erceg relieved Wacha

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 0·KC 2

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 0·KC 2

  25. B8

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  26. B8

    Perez struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  27. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

KC

Home

0

Runs

2

4

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

6

TB

8

0

HR

1

1

BB

1

8

K

6

8

LOB

9

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 9·CHW +159/KC -194

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Dustin HarrisHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 9, 26sim 99
    42
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 98
    40
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    200
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    211
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 94
    94
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    91
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

KC vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.0%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    60.8%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.9%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.