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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2KC
CHW

CHW

5-9

0
2
KC

KC

6-8

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
12,907 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

KC no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0KC SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL66.2%58.2%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 60.7%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CHW 0 · KC 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
KC000100102

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 98
    40
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 97
    42
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 96
    91
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    94
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    200
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    182
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+153

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasKC -186

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Chicago White Sox, 2–0.

KC -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Lenyn Sosa

Lenyn Sosa

2B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Carter Jensen

Carter Jensen

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW5-9
0
2
KC6-8
CHW5-9·KC6-8
CHW

CHW

5-9

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44000003
SPRINT2744
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-33000010
SPRINT28.381
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-44000003
SPRINT27.148
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-33000000
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-33000002
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-33000000
T. MurrayT. Murray★LF
0-33000002
D. HillD. Hill★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.294
Team2-29290200111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
7.0722031
D. DavittD. DavittRP
1.0000100
Team8.0722131
KC

KC

6-8

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44011000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-33000000
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-33010000
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-33111101
SPRINT27.457
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.838
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-33010001
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-33010001
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22000010
Team7-2828272113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BubicK. Bubic★SP
7.02001110
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0000000
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0000000
Team9.02001110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • D. Martin
    82 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      24%·90.1 mph·27% whiff
    • FC
      24%·90.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.1 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      7%·82.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Davitt
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      43%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.5 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • K. Bubic
    88 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      40%·90.9 mph·32% whiff
    • ST
      22%·82.2 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.8 mph·57% whiff
    • SI
      10%·90.1 mph·25% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      86%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·78.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

7

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 9CHWCHW2@KCKC0
Apr 10CHWCHW0@KCKC2today
Apr 11CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 12CHWCHW6@KCKC5

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 9CHWCHW2@KCKC0
Apr 10CHWCHW0@KCKC2today
Apr 11CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 12CHWCHW6@KCKC5
May 12KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 13KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 14KCKC2@CHWCHW6
Jun 26KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 27KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 28KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 22CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming
Sep 23CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming
Sep 24CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+15340%
KCKC-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CHWCHW
L. Sosa

L. Sosa

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 7 H

KCKC
C. Jensen

C. Jensen

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

K. Bubic

K. Bubic

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 11 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat CHW 2-0.

Win probability

KC vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 84% WP

Witt Jr. · doubled to left, Garcia scored.

CHWTop 5th Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 31% WP

Sosa · doubled to left.

CHWTop 6th Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 30% WP

Hill · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
KC00010010—2

Period scoring

CHW won 0 · KC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Jensen 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHW
KC

Play-by-play · 418 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  2. T9

    Murakami lined out to center.

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  4. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Munetaka Murakami

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  5. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  6. T9

    Vargas grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

    +2pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  11. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  12. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  13. T9

    Meidroth flied out to left.

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

    +3pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  19. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Chase Meidroth

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  20. T9

    Erceg relieved Strahm

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 0·KC 2

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 0·KC 2

  23. B8

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  24. B8

    Witt Jr. flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  25. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  26. B8

    Duncan Davitt pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  27. B8

    ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  28. B8

    Garcia grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Isbel out at second.

    · ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

    −2pp

  29. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 0·KC 2

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

KC

Home

0

Runs

2

2

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

3

TB

13

0

HR

1

1

BB

1

11

K

3

8

LOB

10

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHW +153/KC -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

KC vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    59.8%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.3%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.0%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381