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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2PIT
WSH

WSH

8-10

0
2
PIT

PIT

11-7

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
11,244 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

PIT no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

-1.0-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL64.8%56.8%PIT NO-VIG %MODEL 60.5%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

WSH 0 · PIT 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000000000
PIT200000002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasPIT -175

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Washington Nationals, 2–0.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Ryan O'Hearn

Ryan O'Hearn

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH8-10
0
2
PIT11-7
WSH8-10·PIT11-7
WSH

WSH

8-10

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000002
SPRINT27.457
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.838
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-44000001
SPRINT29.395
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44000001
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-11010010
SPRINT28.483
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
0-33000001
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT26.838
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
0-22000000
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-22000010
N. NunezN. Nunez2B
0-11000000
D. MillasD. MillasC
0-11000000
J. TenaJ. TenaDH
0-11000001
Team3-3030030028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
5.0422350
B. LordB. LordRP
3.0100020
Team8.0522370
PIT

PIT

11-7

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-44000002
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000001
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-11100030
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
3-44130001
SPRINT26.735
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT25.614
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT28.586
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-22000001
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
0-33000000
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-22000000
Team5-2828252037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MontgomeryM. Montgomery★RP
1.0100010
C. MlodzinskiC. MlodzinskiSP
6.0200250
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000020
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000000
Team9.0300280

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    85 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      28%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·76.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      19%·92.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.4 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.9 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Lord
    39 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      38%·94.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      38%·85.9 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.8 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      3%·82.7 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • C. Mlodzinski
    81 pitches·28% CSW
    • FS
      43%·85.4 mph·26% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.6 mph·15% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      7%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      38%·87.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      53%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      7%·94.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·98.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      36%·90.2 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

5

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 13WSHWSH5@PITPIT16
Apr 14WSHWSH5@PITPIT4
Apr 15WSHWSH0@PITPIT2today
Apr 16WSHWSH8@PITPIT7

Season series

PIT leads series 2-1

Apr 13WSHWSH5@PITPIT16
Apr 14WSHWSH5@PITPIT4
Apr 15WSHWSH0@PITPIT2today
Apr 16WSHWSH8@PITPIT7
Jul 3PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming
Jul 4PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming
Jul 5PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+14441%
PITPIT-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 1st Inning

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

PITPIT
R. O'Hearn

R. O'Hearn

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

C. Mlodzinski

C. Mlodzinski

SP

Top relieverQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat WSH 2-0.

Win probability

PIT vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 77% WP

Ozuna · singled to right, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.

WSHTop 2nd Inning · 0-2
+6pp→ 21% WP

Abrams · hit by pitch.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000000000
PIT20000000—2

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · PIT won 1

0
2

Inn 1

Ozuna 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

WSH
PIT

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  2. T9

    Millas lined out to right.

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  8. T9

    Abrams to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  9. T9

    Abrams to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  13. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Drew Millas

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  14. T9

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  15. T9

    Nuñez lined out to center.

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

    +5pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  21. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Nasim Nunez

    · ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  22. T9

    Nuñez hit for Wiemer

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  23. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  24. T9

    Abrams hit by pitch.

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

    −4pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  28. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  29. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

  30. T9

    House grounded out to third.

    ·

    WSH 0·PIT 2

    +2pp

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

0

Runs

2

3

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

5

TB

5

0

HR

0

2

BB

3

8

K

7

14

LOB

13

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 9.5·WSH +144/PIT -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891

Player projections

PIT vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.2%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    59.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.1%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.9%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    40
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    40
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 95
    263
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 94
    42
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 94
    261
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs