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FINAL+3MIN
MIN

MIN

1-1

4
1
BAL

BAL

1-1

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
26,057 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

BAL no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.3%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL64.3%56.3%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 61.0%May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 4 · BAL 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0001201004
BAL0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Mar 28·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -171

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 4–1.

MIN +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Royce Lewis

Royce Lewis

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Ryan Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN1-1
4
1
BAL1-1
MIN1-1·BAL1-1
MIN

MIN

1-1

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT27.457
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT29.597
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-44000001
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-33000011
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33001001
SPRINT25.18
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-33000012
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-22100010
SPRINT26.632
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-33212111
SPRINT27.251
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-33000001
J. OutmanJ. OutmanCF
0-11000000
Team4-30304441410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BradleyT. Bradley★SP
4.1311390
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.2000120
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.2200020
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
1.1000100
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0000010
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0000120
Team9.05116160
BAL

BAL

1-1

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33000022
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000003
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-55010002
SPRINT25.29
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-22000021
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-33000012
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-22000001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000011
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-22110001
SPRINT28.175
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
2-44021001
SPRINT26.530
T. O'NeillT. O'NeillRF
0-22000001
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle1B
1-11010000
L. TaverasL. TaverasCF
0-11000001
Team5-32321510616
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BradishK. Bradish★SP
4.2232341
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.1100010
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
1.2111110
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
0.1000010
A. NunezA. NunezRP
2.0000030
Team9.04434101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • T. Bradley
    92 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      29%·91.3 mph·64% whiff
    • CU
      15%·81.9 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.2 mph·17% whiff
  • E. Orze
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      71%·81.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      19%·91.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Sands
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·81.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      19%·88.0 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Banda
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      33%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·81.1 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      38%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      31%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·80.1 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Topa
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      42%·79.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·86.1 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    83 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      40%·85.7 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      34%·93.5 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      18%·82.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      8%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Enns
    33 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.3 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      30%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      24%·80.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      6%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·78.8 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nunez
    22 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      36%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.2 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cano
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      63%·94.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      25%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    3 pitches·100% CSW
    • SL
      100%·86.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

5

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Mar 26MINMIN1@BALBAL2
Mar 28MINMIN4@BALBAL1today
Mar 29MINMIN6@BALBAL8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 26MINMIN1@BALBAL2
Mar 28MINMIN4@BALBAL1today
Mar 29MINMIN6@BALBAL8
Aug 10BALBAL@MINMINupcoming
Aug 11BALBAL@MINMINupcoming
Aug 12BALBAL@MINMINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+14141%
BALBAL-17163%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 5th Inning

MINMIN
R. Lewis

R. Lewis

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

T. Bradley

T. Bradley

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

BALBAL
R. Mountcastle

R. Mountcastle

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIN beat BAL 4-1. Lewis's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+24pp→ 66% WP

Lewis · homered to left (378 feet), Larnach scored.

MINTop 7th Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 76% WP

Larnach · flied out to left.

MINTop 7th Inning · 4-1
+10pp→ 86% WP

Clemens · singled to center, Lewis scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0001201004
BAL0100000001

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · BAL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Jackson 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Bell 1

2
0

Inn 5

Lewis 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Clemens 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIN
BAL

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  3. B9

    Alonso grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ward out at second.

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  5. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Pete Alonso

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  6. B9

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  7. B9

    Henderson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

    −3pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  14. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    · ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  15. B9

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  16. B9

    Ward walked.

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

    +3pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  21. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Taylor Ward

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  22. B9

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  23. B9

    Jackson struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

    −2pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  29. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

  30. B9

    Sands relieved Topa

    ·

    MIN 4·BAL 1

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

4

Runs

1

4

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

7

TB

6

1

HR

0

4

BB

6

10

K

16

6

LOB

15

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIN +141/BAL -171

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 26, 26sim 96
    91
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 96
    91
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    40
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 95
    203
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 95
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    211
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BAL vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.9%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    60.0%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.3%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.6%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.