• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2CHW
CHW

CHW

5-8

2
0
KC

KC

5-8

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
13,001 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

-1.0-2.0KC SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL65.6%57.6%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 62.7%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 2 · KC 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0001001002
KC0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 99
    40
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 97
    40
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 95
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    200
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 94
    211
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    91
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Apr 9·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasKC -181

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 2–0.

CHW +1.5 cashed (KC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Edgar Quero

Edgar Quero

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW5-8
2
0
KC5-8
CHW5-8·KC5-8
CHW

CHW

5-8

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-22100020
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-33000010
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44011000
SPRINT26.326
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33100012
SPRINT26.632
D. HarrisD. Harris★LF
1-33010011
E. QueroE. Quero★C
2-44020000
SPRINT24.12
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-33001000
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-33000001
Team5-2929252055
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. KayA. Kay★SP
5.2300260
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.1200010
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0000120
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000120
Team9.05004110
KC

KC

5-8

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44020011
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-55020001
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000002
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-33000001
SPRINT241
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT28.688
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-22000012
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-33000010
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-33000010
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-44000003
C. JensenC. JensenC
0-11000001
Team5-32320500411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
6.1421440
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.2000000
E. MorganE. MorganRP
2.0100110
Team9.0521550

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • A. Kay
    100 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      31%·96.3 mph·27% whiff
    • FC
      22%·90.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.9 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      55%·98.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      27%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      9%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·96.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·99.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Leasure
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      28%·96.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      11%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      33%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·85.6 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • S. Lugo
    92 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      27%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.9 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.2 mph·45% whiff
    • SL
      11%·83.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·76.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      4%·77.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·77.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CS
      1%·68.1 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Morgan
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      44%·76.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      37%·91.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.6 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      27%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 9CHWCHW2@KCKC0today
Apr 10CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 11CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 12CHWCHW6@KCKC5

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

Apr 9CHWCHW2@KCKC0today
Apr 10CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 11CHWCHW0@KCKC2
Apr 12CHWCHW6@KCKC5
May 12KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 13KCKC5@CHWCHW6
May 14KCKC2@CHWCHW6
Jun 26KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 27KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Jun 28KCKC@CHWCHWupcoming
Sep 22CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming
Sep 23CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming
Sep 24CHWCHW@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+14940%
KCKC-18164%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 4th Inning

CHWCHW
E. Quero

E. Quero

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

A. Kay

A. Kay

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.100 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

CHW beat KC 2-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 51% WP

Montgomery · doubled to right, Murakami scored.

KCTop 6th Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 48% WP

Murakami · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Meidroth out at second.

KCBottom 9th Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 19% WP

Collins · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0001001002
KC0000000000

Period scoring

CHW won 2 · KC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Montgomery 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Acu 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
KC

Play-by-play · 551 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 2·KC 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  3. B9

    Witt Jr. struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  7. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  8. B9

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  9. B9

    Garcia struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

    −7pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  16. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Maikel Garcia

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  17. B9

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  18. B9

    Isbel flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

    −7pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  21. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Kyle Isbel

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  22. B9

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  23. B9

    Collins walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

    +10pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  28. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Isaac Collins

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  29. B9

    Domínguez relieved Leasure

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 0

  30. B9

    Hill in left field.

    CHW 2·KC 0

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

KC

Home

2

Runs

0

5

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

6

TB

6

0

HR

0

5

BB

4

5

K

11

14

LOB

17

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 9·CHW +149/KC -181

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

KC vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.4%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    61.3%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.5%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.4%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Dustin HarrisHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381