• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1STL
BOS

BOS

4-9

2
3
STL

STL

8-5

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
27,125 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

STL no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL48.9%40.9%STL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

BOS 2 · STL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0002000002
STL010020003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 26, 26sim 98
    123
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 97
    20
    9(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    166
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 96
    151
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 95
    24
    6(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    27
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -136

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Boston Red Sox, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

STL +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Victor Scott II

Victor Scott II

CF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS4-9
2
3
STL8-5
BOS4-9·STL8-5
BOS

BOS

4-9

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44000000
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33000001
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-33110001
SPRINT26.123
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-44000002
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT2872
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44101001
SPRINT27.969
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.560
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-33000001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT28.790
Team5-3232251007
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
4.1511250
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
0.2222100
T. SamaniegoT. SamaniegoRP
0.2000210
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.1000010
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
1.0100120
Team8.0833690
STL

STL

8-5

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
0-33000021
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44010013
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-55000001
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-44120001
SPRINT28.891
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-33210010
SPRINT26.735
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-00000010
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
1-33011002
SPRINT27.148
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-44010001
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-22011010
SPRINT29.798
T. SaggeseT. SaggeseLF
1-22011000
SPRINT27.354
Team8-3030383069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
6.0421040
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0000010
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0100010
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0000010
Team9.0521070

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • G. Weissert
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·81.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.6 mph·— whiff

STL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

8

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Apr 11BOSBOS2@STLSTL3today
Apr 11BOSBOS7@STLSTL1
Apr 12BOSBOS9@STLSTL3

Season series

STL leads series 1-0

Apr 11BOSBOS2@STLSTL3today
Apr 11BOSBOS7@STLSTL1
Apr 12BOSBOS9@STLSTL3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS-13658%
STLSTL+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 8th Inning

BOSBOS
W. Abreu

W. Abreu

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

STLSTL
V. Scott II

V. Scott II

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

STL beat BOS 3-2. Yoshida's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

STL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLBottom 5th Inning · 2-2
+15pp→ 57% WP

Saggese · singled to left, Walker scored, Urías to second.

BOSTop 8th Inning · 2-3
+16pp→ 38% WP

Rafaela · doubled to right.

STLTop 8th Inning · 2-3
+18pp→ 77% WP

Yoshida · struck out looking.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0002000002
STL01002000—3

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · STL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

II 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Story 1

0
2

Inn 5

Saggese 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
STL

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  2. T9

    Mayer struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  7. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Marcelo Mayer

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  8. T9

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  9. T9

    Story grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

    +4pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  11. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Trevor Story

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  12. T9

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  13. T9

    Abreu grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

    +7pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  17. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  18. T9

    O'Brien relieved Romero

    ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 2·STL 3

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 2·STL 3

  21. B8

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  22. B8

    Burleson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

    −2pp

  23. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  24. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  25. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  29. B8

    Jovani Moran pitches to Alec Burleson

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

  30. B8

    · ·

    BOS 2·STL 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

STL

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

6

TB

10

0

HR

0

0

BB

6

7

K

9

12

LOB

24

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 7·BOS -136/STL +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

STL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    48.4%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.4%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.3%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872