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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAA
LAA

LAA

1-0

3
0
HOU

HOU

0-1

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
41,329 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

HOU no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0HOU SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL66.2%58.2%HOU NO-VIG %MODEL 62.5%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 3 · HOU 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000001113
HOU0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 98
    91
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 96
    91
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    94
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 95
    42
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    40
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    200
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Mar 26·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasHOU -186

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Houston Astros and beat them, 3–0.

LAA +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Mike Trout

Mike Trout

CF

2.800OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Joey Loperfido

Joey Loperfido

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA1-0
3
0
HOU0-1
LAA1-0·HOU0-1
LAA

LAA

1-0

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-55000001
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-22111131
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-55111103
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-55010002
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-33010021
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-33120010
SPRINT27.867
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-44000002
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
2-44020002
SPRINT27.251
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-44011002
SPRINT28.278
B. TeodosioB. TeodosioLF
0-11000000
Team9-36363932614
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
6.0200470
W. UrenaW. UrenaSP
0.2100110
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
0.1000000
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0000000
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
1.0000110
Team9.0300690
HOU

HOU

0-1

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-33000010
SPRINT27.867
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-33000011
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-33000011
SPRINT25.18
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-44000001
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.688
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-33000012
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-33000012
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-33000011
N. AllenN. AllenSS
0-11000001
Team3-3030030069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. BrownH. Brown★SP
4.2400490
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
2.1211031
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0211010
C. RoaC. RoaRP
1.0111211
Team9.09336142

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • J. Soriano
    91 pitches·34% CSW
    • SI
      34%·97.9 mph·42% whiff
    • KC
      29%·86.6 mph·73% whiff
    • FF
      25%·99.1 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      8%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      4%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Urena
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      50%·98.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      36%·86.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      14%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      25%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romano
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      50%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Silseth
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • FS
      100%·86.8 mph·0% whiff

HOU

  • H. Brown
    102 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      31%·96.4 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      30%·96.0 mph·8% whiff
    • KC
      27%·83.7 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      6%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.2 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    41 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      51%·96.7 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      24%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·83.6 mph·60% whiff
  • C. Roa
    33 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      52%·96.1 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. King
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      47%·81.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      41%·91.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

3

3

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Mar 26LAALAA3@HOUHOU0today
Mar 28LAALAA6@HOUHOU2
Mar 28LAALAA9@HOUHOU11
Mar 29LAALAA7@HOUHOU9

Season series

LAA lead series 1-0

Mar 26LAALAA3@HOUHOU0today
Mar 28LAALAA6@HOUHOU2
Mar 28LAALAA9@HOUHOU11
Mar 29LAALAA7@HOUHOU9
Jun 9HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 10HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 11HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 28HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 29HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 30HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 19LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 20LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 21LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+15340%
HOUHOU-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 7th Inning

LAALAA
M. Trout

M. Trout

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.800 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

HOUHOU
J. Loperfido

J. Loperfido

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

H. Brown

H. Brown

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAA beat HOU 3-0. Trout's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 7th Inning · 1-0
+22pp→ 61% WP

Trout · homered to left (403 feet).

HOUBottom 7th Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 55% WP

Walker · doubled to left.

LAATop 8th Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 84% WP

Peraza · singled to left, Adell scored, O'Hoppe to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000001113
HOU0000000000

Period scoring

LAA won 3 · HOU won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Trout 1

1
0

Inn 8

Peraza 1

1
0

Inn 9

Schanuel 1

LAA
HOU

Play-by-play · 617 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  3. B9

    Meyers flied out to second.

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  5. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Jake Meyers

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  6. B9

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  7. B9

    Diaz walked.

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

    +0.8pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  12. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Yainer Diaz

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  13. B9

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  14. B9

    Allen struck out looking.

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

    −1pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  19. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Nick Allen

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  20. B9

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  21. B9

    Smith grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

    −2pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  25. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Cam Smith

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  26. B9

    Romano relieved Pomeranz

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  29. T9

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  30. T9

    Teodosio grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

3

Runs

0

9

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

15

TB

5

2

HR

0

6

BB

6

14

K

9

22

LOB

14

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 8·LAA +153/HOU -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bryce TeodosioLAA · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

HOU vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.0± 0.7high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 1.2low

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    61.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.3%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.9%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.